The EBRD has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth due to export losses of up to $5 billion
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy due to the impact of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and export challenges. According to the bank’s estimates, Ukraine could lose up to $5 billion in export revenues.
In its updated report, the EBRD took into account the consequences of the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid.
At the same time, Ukraine has carried out strikes on Russian oil refineries, causing a fuel shortage in Russia.
According to the EBRD’s assessment, the Ukrainian economy stagnated in the first half of 2026 after growing by 1.8% in 2025.
For 2026 as a whole, the bank expects Ukraine’s GDP to grow by only 1.5%. In June, the EBRD had forecast growth of 2.2%.
For 2027, the bank forecasts that Ukraine’s economic growth will accelerate to 2.2%, though even this figure is lower than the previous estimate of 4%.
EBRD Chief Economist Beata Jaworczyk emphasized the significant impact of energy infrastructure problems on Ukraine’s economy.
“An end to attacks on energy infrastructure would be extremely beneficial, as disruptions to energy infrastructure have had a profound impact on the Ukrainian economy,” said Beata Jaworczyk.
The EBRD identifies difficulties in exporting grain and metal ores as one of the main challenges facing the Ukrainian economy.
According to the bank’s estimates, Ukrainian grain exports have fallen to the level seen in April 2022—that is, shortly after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Among the reasons cited are low water levels in the Danube and damage to railway infrastructure. As a result, alternative routes for transporting wheat and other grains have become significantly more expensive.
According to the EBRD’s forecast, Ukraine could lose $3–3.5 billion in grain export revenue.
Approximately $1.5 billion in metal ore exports is also at risk.
Thus, total potential losses could reach $5 billion, which corresponds to approximately 2.5% of Ukraine’s annual GDP.
At the same time, the EBRD has revised its forecast for the Russian economy downward.
The bank now expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 0.5% in 2026 and by 0.7% in 2027. The previous forecast projected growth of 0.8% and 1%, respectively.
Following Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, Moscow banned the export of diesel fuel. This, in turn, caused fuel prices to rise on the global market.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that, in his view, the U.S. will seek an agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.
Problems with Ukrainian exports could affect more than just Ukraine’s economy. A reduction in grain supplies from one of the world’s leading exporters poses risks to the global food market.
According to Beata Jaworczyk, the situation could be further complicated by the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon on harvests in other regions of the world.
The economist also noted that if Ukraine is unable to find buyers for this year’s harvest, it could lead to a reduction in planted acreage next season.
Earlier, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine signed a loan agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for 450 million euros as part of the “Development of the Trans-European Transport Network (Ukraine – Road Corridors)” project.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development may provide Naftogaz of Ukraine with a 60 million euro loan to purchase natural gas.
