Recently, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko made a shocking statement that has already caused considerable concern among many segments of the population who are, in one way or another, financially dependent on the state. According to the head of the Ministry of Finance, it cannot be ruled out that Ukrainians may soon face delays in social benefits and public sector salaries due to a lack of available funding. At the same time, the government is not currently cutting social spending, the minister emphasized.
According to Marchenko, the future situation will depend on the amount of funds flowing into the Single Treasury Account. The government is already forced to prioritize payments and limit certain expenditures. The situation may worsen in the future.
The Minister of Finance also called on the Verkhovna Rada to expedite the adoption of bills necessary to secure financial support from international partners—for example, laws regarding additional taxation on parcels, which are particularly burdensome for the public and businesses.
Marchenko believes that Ukraine has already reached the limits of its financing capacity. He proposes the following approach: as soon as new revenue comes in, the government will prioritize funding for the defense and security sectors. Only then—if funds are available—will it address everything else. This applies to both the national and local budgets. In addition, the finance minister does not rule out the possibility of monetizing the budget—with the corresponding devaluation of the hryvnia, inflation, and other negative consequences.
Just how dire is the current financial situation? Does Ukraine really have no money left? Will teachers, retirees, students, people with disabilities, veterans, and other recipients of budget funds soon be left without a penny to their name? UA.News posed all these questions to Ukrainian experts. Read more in our article.
The state has sufficient resources to fulfill its social obligations: Economist Denys Haievskyi
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, as of August 25, Ukraine had received $30.5 billion in loans and grants from foreign partners for 2026, with an additional €3 billion expected to arrive shortly under the Ukraine Facility program. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, stood at $48.7 billion as of September 1.
This means that, at present, these resources are entirely sufficient for the state to fulfill its social obligations. However, localized delays in payments for protected budget items cannot be completely ruled out—due to cash flow gaps and administrative reasons.
Sooner or later, the Verkhovna Rada will adopt, at least in part, the package of laws needed to unlock new tranches from the EU and the IMF. Thus, it can be concluded that financial risks in general—and the risk of the government failing to meet its social obligations in particular—are low through the end of 2027.
However, in the medium and long term, Ukraine will need increasing amounts of external aid, as the war becomes more costly with each passing year, and domestic capacities are diminishing—in particular, due to intensified enemy shelling, the demographic crisis, significant increases in energy prices on international markets, and other factors. Whether external donors will be able to increase their aid—especially given the expected shift in the political landscape in key EU countries in 2027—remains an open question.
In Ukraine, anything not nailed down will be stolen: UIP economic expert Vadym Syrota
In my view, the finance minister’s motivation when he says that Ukraine may begin to delay salaries and social benefits is quite obvious. Parliament did not pass the relevant bills on taxing parcels and other measures—painful for businesses and the public—that are necessary to secure Western funding. That’s why the Ministry of Finance has started telling us fairy tales—you know, like the one about the boy who cried “wolf.”
This is standard behavior. The problem is that we really do live under the illusion that there’s enough money. We have a “zombie economy” and a “zombie system” of public finances. Our economic relations resemble another fairy tale: the one where “the emperor has no clothes.”
We’re receiving tens of billions from the West to cover budget expenditures. But defense spending is already heading toward “plus infinity.” We’re constantly increasing budget expenditures that aren’t backed by anything except money from our Western partners. President Zelenskyy says we’re $27 billion short in the defense budget through the end of the year. This is causing concern in Brussels—and prompting attempts to figure out why these demands keep growing so rapidly.
There are colossal holes in Ukraine’s revenue and colossal gaps in regulation, as a result of which the state budget is not being filled properly. For 2025, potential budget losses from unpaid taxes are estimated at 535–615 billion hryvnia. As for expenditures, in 2024 Ukraine lost $1.2 billion due to inefficient spending on defense procurement alone. And recently, the American newspaper The New York Times published a scathing article about the mistakes and inefficiencies in defense procurement. The key message: anything in Ukraine that isn’t nailed down will be stolen.
In summary: the finance minister should be advised to work harder and complain less. “Yaroslavna’s Lament” will eventually cease to be an effective means of securing funds. There are real economic indicators of inefficiency in both revenue and tax collection, as well as in spending. And in order for the West to continue wanting to help, we must start with ourselves and put our own house in order.
The budget
is currently in crisis, and perhaps even a fiasco: Yevhen Magda, head of the Institute of World Policy
I would like to remind you that Serhiy Marchenko has been the Minister of Finance for many years now. Accordingly, he bears full responsibility for drafting the budget. And when a person makes such statements on the eve of the official review of next year’s budget—it means that, to put it mildly, there is a crisis. Or perhaps even a fiasco, as the six-letter word that signifies a very rapid decline is sometimes called.
Unfortunately, Ukrainian officials fail to grasp a simple truth: in the context of the war against Russia, stealing is wrong—it amounts to looting. And failing to fulfill one’s obligations to the European Union—especially after entering the negotiation process with such fanfare—is short-sighted, because Western politicians view corruption in Ukraine as the embezzlement of Western aid funds. And we are already heavily dependent on the West as it stands.
So if Serhiy Marchenko wanted to use this method to show our partners that they are not fulfilling their obligations—then, to put it very mildly, that is simply not the case. Accordingly, we must understand that the time for easy, populist decisions met with applause has passed. We need to do other things. And to do that, we need to engage in dialogue with society, explain the situation, and find common ground. Otherwise, it will be very, very difficult.
It’s
better to implement strict austerity measures now: economist Boris Kushniruk
Ukraine objectively faces financial problems, and they may worsen. On the one hand, there is the issue of the projected deficit—that is, something we knew from the very beginning: that we would not be able to cover our funding needs by the end of the year. Incidentally, this applies not only to this year but also to next year. And while we might “use up” some funds this year and next, things will be really bad in 2027. So it’s better to implement strict austerity measures right now.
But there’s also the issue that certain funding is being held up because the Verkhovna Rada just can’t seem to pass a whole range of laws. There are quite a few such laws—it’s not just what the IMF requires; there are also bills that the European Union demands be passed.
So there are issues with funding, including funding for social spending, and this is a matter for both the president and the government, of course. But the idea that “all public sector employees will now be left without pay”—that’s not the case. It won’t happen. But there may indeed be some delays. The question is who will be affected by these delays.
Let me remind you, by the way, that last year, for example, we had delays in payments to the military. Salaries for Ukraine’s defenders were not paid for 2–3 months. We may now face a similar situation.
Social benefits won’t be delayed; everything will be fine: Oleg Pendzin, head of the Economic Discussion Club
I think that statements like the one made by Finance Minister Marchenko regarding the risks of delays in social benefits and salaries for public sector employees are made solely to more actively encourage lawmakers. The goal is to get them to more actively pass the laws that the government has submitted to the Verkhovna Rada.
We must understand that all social benefits are funded by external borrowing. They are directly tied to the milestones of the IMF and Ukraine Facility programs. These benchmarks concern the Verkhovna Rada’s adoption of draft laws that parliament does not want to pass—not for the first time, by the way. And now these bills are being submitted to the Verkhovna Rada again, and the government is trying to explain the consequences of not passing them. It’s also trying to do this through the media so that people know, just in case, who’s to blame if that happens.
But I don’t think anything like that will happen. No one will withhold social benefits. Everything will be fine.
