The Ministry of Finance has released a two-year forecast of gas prices for residential customers
In its draft of the 2027 state budget for Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance considered several scenarios for changes in retail natural gas prices for households. Under the baseline and positive scenarios, the price could rise by 5% in 2027 and by another 30% in 2028, after which a transition to market-based pricing is expected starting in 2029.
Under the negative scenario, the increase may be more gradual: +5% in 2027, +25% in 2028, and +35% in 2029, with the transition to market-based pricing scheduled to begin in 2030.
These assumptions are contained in the “Information on Fiscal Risks and Their Impact on State Budget Indicators in 2027,” which the Ministry of Finance published on September 18, 2026. The ministry emphasizes that the stress test results reflect possible trends under various scenarios and may differ from the actual situation.
The Ministry of Finance document outlines three scenarios for the Naftogaz Group: baseline, positive, and negative.
Under the baseline scenario, the following is projected:
- a 5% increase in gas prices for households in 2027;
- a further 30% increase in 2028;
- a transition to selling gas at market prices starting in 2029.
The positive scenario follows virtually the same trajectory: a 5% increase in 2027, a 30% increase in 2028, and market-based pricing starting in 2029.
At the same time, the negative scenario envisages a different trajectory: a 5% increase in 2027, a 25% increase in 2028, and a 35% increase in 2029. In this case, the transition to market-based pricing is expected only starting in 2030.
Separately, the Ministry of Finance considered the timeline for ending the PSO regime—special obligations for gas supply.
In the baseline and positive scenarios, the PSO regime is set to end in May 2028. In the negative scenario, the special conditions are expected to remain in effect longer—until May 2029.
After the PSO regime is abolished, the price of gas for households will depend more on market conditions.
The percentages indicated in the document do not constitute an approved new gas tariff for households. These are assumptions that the Ministry of Finance used during stress testing of the Naftogaz Group’s financial condition.
The Ministry of Finance separately noted that the stress testing reflects the possible dynamics of financial forecasts under various scenarios, and actual figures may differ due to events not accounted for in the calculations.
Therefore, a 5% increase in the gas price in 2027 should currently be viewed as a scenario-based assumption by the Ministry of Finance, rather than as a decision on a new tariff that has already been adopted.
This is stated in a report on fiscal risks and their impact on state budget indicators in 2027, published by the Ministry of Finance.
Earlier, Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling described a hypothetical scenario of a gas crisis in the U.S. in October 2030. In this scenario, a gas shortage could lead to rising energy prices, job losses, and heat-related deaths.
Starting October 1, 2026, a preferential electricity rate of 2.64 UAH per kWh will apply to certain households. The discount will apply to consumption of up to 2,000 kWh per month for homes with electric heating and certain homes not connected to the natural gas network.
