The Ministry of Social Policy has issued a forecast on how many Ukrainians will return after the war

Denis Ulyutin, Minister of Social Policy, Family, and Unity, stated that once active hostilities have ended, approximately 2 million people will return home, which will require communities to be prepared to provide social services. The government plans to shift its focus from providing individual assistance to supporting infrastructure development in the regions to ensure adequate living conditions. 

The Government Portal reports on the strategy for the adaptation of returning Ukrainians.

According to the minister, people’s decisions to return will depend on comparing the quality of life abroad with the opportunities they will have at home. Key factors will include not only security following the cessation of Russian aggression but also access to the labor market, education, healthcare, and housing. Ulyutin emphasized that “all Ukrainians will benefit” from community development, as this will enable the creation of a sustainable social support system.

Currently, the government is working on programs to stimulate the restoration of human capital in the country. Previously, representatives of the academic community noted that the war is not the only factor preventing young people from returning, so the comprehensive development of communities is a priority. Creating a comfortable environment for living and working is seen as the main tool for overcoming the demographic crisis. Ukraine expects a large-scale wave of repatriation once the security situation stabilizes.

Forecasts regarding the return of Ukrainian refugees after the war ends are becoming increasingly cautious. According to Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, while researchers previously hoped for the return of 50% of citizens, they now consider only 30%to be a realistic figure. 

Today, Ukraine’s population, including territories under Russian occupation, stands at just under 36 million, according to officials, compared to approximately 41 million when the war began. However, these figures are approximate and may be much lower.