Problems in Crimea are mounting due to disruptions in logistics
In the temporarily occupied Crimea, fuel shortages could escalate into a much more serious crisis. Due to logistical difficulties on the peninsula, prices have already begun to rise, lines are forming, and residents are increasingly stocking up on essential goods.
Military analyst Denis Popovich believes the situation could continue to deteriorate. According to him, food supplies and the energy sector could be next to come under attack.
As the expert explains, Russia is trying to find alternative supply routes to occupied Crimea following intensified attacks on logistics routes. This primarily refers to the so-called “Novorossiya” route, which the Russians have been actively developing and expanding in recent years to facilitate the rapid transport of goods. “We know the Russians have been working on this. Detour routes have worse road surfaces, are longer, and have lower capacity,” Popovich noted on Radio NV.
According to him, even if Russia redirects part of its transport to other roads, this will not fully solve the problem. “Those same detour routes will also be monitored by Ukrainian drones. So this isn’t a cure for the problem; the Russians won’t gain anything from it,” the expert emphasized.
Fuel shortages have already emerged in Crimea
Popovich points out that fuel shortages on the peninsula have been ongoing for some time. According to him, due to higher prices, many Crimeans have started driving across the Kerch Bridge to the Krasnodar Krai to buy gasoline and diesel there. The reason is simple—fuel in Russia is often cheaper than in Crimea itself.
But this situation is already starting to create problems for neighboring Russian regions as well. “Fuel costs less in the Krasnodar Krai than in Crimea. And lines are already forming in the Krasnodar Krai. Restrictions are now being imposed in the Krasnodar Krai as well,” the expert noted.
People have started stockpiling food
Amid fuel shortages, residents of the occupied peninsula are increasingly stocking up on food. According to Popovich, non-perishable goods are currently in the highest demand. “This fuel crisis in Crimea is leading people to start stocking up on essential goods: grains, sugar, oil, flour, and so on,” he said.
He noted that in some cases, restrictions on the sale of certain goods are already being imposed. Such developments typically indicate public concern about further supply disruptions.
Energy could be next
The expert believes that fuel problems could lead to other difficulties. In particular, this concerns the operation of the energy infrastructure, which also depends on a stable fuel supply. If logistical problems intensify, this could affect not only transportation or business operations but also the supply of certain energy facilities. “Therefore, all of this is unfolding into major problems for the temporarily occupied Crimea,” Popovich believes.
Russia is looking for a way out, but there is no solution yet
According to the analyst, there have recently been reports of attempts to restrict train traffic at night. In his view, this may be a reaction to the risks to logistics and infrastructure.
However, the expert is convinced that such steps are unlikely to radically change the situation. “Trains can be attacked during the day as well, so none of this stops the process that is currently underway,” he concluded. Against this backdrop, supply issues in occupied Crimea may remain one of the main challenges for the Russian administration of the peninsula in the coming months.
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