Russia may harvest more than 9 million metric tons of the Ukrainian crop
In 2026, approximately 3.5 million hectares of agricultural land were planted in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds from these areas could amount to about 9.3 million metric tons.
Russia could obtain more than 9 million metric tons of the Ukrainian harvest grown in the temporarily occupied territories. This refers to grain and oilseed crops that were planted on millions of hectares this year.
According to the ministry, about 20% of all Ukraine’s agricultural land is currently under Russian occupation. Due to the lack of access to these territories, Ukrainian experts are monitoring the situation using satellite imagery. Satellites make it possible to determine which lands have been sown and what crops are being grown there. Based on this data, experts can estimate the approximate size of the future harvest.
“We can see every hectare that has been planted and calculate the potential yield,” said Taras Vysotsky, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food. At the same time, satellite imagery does not reveal what exactly happens to the grain after harvest. “The satellite only records the fact that crops are being grown. We do not know the details of how exactly the occupiers are handling this grain,” Vysotsky noted. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the potential harvest of grain and oilseed crops in the occupied territories in 2026 could amount to about 9.3 million metric tons.
What crops are grown on the occupied lands
Wheat covers the largest area. About 1.8 million hectares have been planted with it. The potential harvest of this crop is estimated at approximately 5.5 million metric tons. Barley covers another 600,000 hectares. These areas could yield about 1.3 million metric tons of grain.
Approximately 800,000 hectares have been planted with sunflowers. The expected yield is also estimated at about 1.3 million metric tons. About 120,000 hectares have been allocated for rapeseed. Potentially, about 250,000 metric tons can be harvested from these fields. Approximately 150,000 hectares have been planted with corn. Its potential yield is currently estimated at about 50,000 metric tons.
Thus, wheat accounts for the largest share of the potential harvest in the occupied territories. Its projected volume represents more than half of the total estimated harvest of grain and oilseed crops.
Ukraine Monitors the Harvest via Satellite
Ukrainian authorities do not have direct access to agricultural land in the temporarily occupied territories. Therefore, satellite monitoring has become one of the main ways to track what is happening there. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy notes that this data is needed not only to count crops and forecast yields.
The information is also used to document the damage inflicted on Ukraine’s agricultural sector by the Russian occupation. In addition, Ukraine is tracking the possible illegal trade in agricultural products from the occupied territories. This includes, in particular, attempts to export such products and sell them on international markets.
“The entire harvest grown on the seized Ukrainian lands is being monitored and recorded by Ukraine,” emphasized Taras Vysotsky. Using satellite data, Ukraine continues to document the use of the occupied lands and the scale of the harvest. This information could become an important part of the evidence base regarding the damage Russia is inflicting on Ukrainian agriculture. This was reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.
