The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026
The World Bank has revised downward its economic growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026—from 2% to 1.2%.
This is stated in the institution’s updated report.
According to analysts’ estimates, Ukraine’s economy grew by 1.8% in 2025, which is also lower than in 2024, when the figure stood at 3.2%.
Key factors contributing to the slowdown include the destruction of energy and industrial infrastructure, supply disruptions, labor shortages, and high levels of uncertainty.
“Growth is being held back by rising energy costs, the intensity of hostilities, labor shortages, and fiscal pressures,” the World Bank notes.
At the same time, if the war ends, economic growth could accelerate to 4% in 2027 thanks to reconstruction and a revival of consumer demand.
Experts emphasize that Ukraine needs deep structural reforms for sustainable development—specifically, fostering competition, reducing the state’s role in the economy, and actively attracting investment.
Without this, as noted in the report, reaching the income levels of EU countries could be delayed by decades.
The European Commission has proposed an alternative path for Ukraine to secure funding amid Hungary’s blocking of the main aid package. A letter from European Commissioner Marta Kos to Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk outlines a list of 11 laws whose adoption would allow Ukraine to attract up to €4 billion.
Hungaryblocks EU loan: the Orbán factor and new risks for Ukraine.
