On the night of the Russian attack, one of the missiles may have fallen in the occupied territory
ISW analysts suggest that during the nighttime attack on May 24, Russia may have deployed not one, but two "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles. According to their data, one of them may have malfunctioned and crashed in the occupied territory of Donetsk Oblast. These conclusions are based on video footage and OSINT research.
During the massive missile strike on Ukraine on the night of May 24, the situation surrounding the weapons used by Russia raised additional questions among military analysts, who closely analyzed video footage from the scene and concluded that the actual number of ballistic missiles used may have been higher than officially reported.
As noted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing previous reports and data from Ukrainian OSINT researchers, there is a possibility that Russia launched not one but two “Oreshnik” missiles, though one of them may have suffered a technical malfunction while in flight.
Analysts point to video footage showing six submunitions falling to the ground in succession, as well as reports from individual sources indicating that one of the missiles may have struck an area of Russian military positions near Avdiivka or Yasynuvata, approximately 40 kilometers from the front line. “The video footage shows six submunitions falling in succession and striking the ground,” according to the conclusions of OSINT analysts cited by the ISW.
According to experts, if this information is confirmed, it could indicate serious technical issues with the use of such missiles, as in this case, some of the munitions effectively malfunction before reaching their targets, casting doubt on their reliability in combat conditions.
At the same time, analysts emphasize that such incidents require further verification, as final conclusions can only be drawn after all data from various sources—including satellite imagery and independent intelligence—has been confirmed.
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