Ukraine expects the Special Tribunal to issue its first ruling on Russia’s crime of aggression in 2028

Ukraine expects the Special Tribunal on Russia’s crime of aggression against our country to issue its first guilty verdict in 2028, with the first official indictment to be issued as early as 2027. 

This was stated by Mykola Yurlov, an advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. The diplomat emphasized that a specialized international team of experienced investigators and prosecutors has been actively operating in the Netherlands for three years, purposefully gathering irrefutable evidence of Russian aggression. 

This body—the International Center for the Prosecution of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA)—began its work in The Hague back in 2023. To date, its team has fully compiled the evidence base necessary to swiftly and effectively bring the highest political and military leadership of the aggressor countries (Russia and Belarus) to criminal justice.

According to the Foreign Ministry adviser, the feasibility of these timelines directly depends on maintaining the current positive diplomatic momentum and the prompt entry into force of the Extended Partial Agreement. As a reminder, on May 15, the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe officially approved this agreement at a meeting in Chisinau (Moldova), which launched the creation of the Steering Committee of the Special Tribunal. Currently, this decision has been supported by 34 member states of the Council of Europe, the European Union, as well as Australia and Costa Rica.

The Special International Tribunal will have clear and unique jurisdiction: it will investigate the actions of and try individuals who bear primary individual responsibility for planning, preparing, initiating, and waging a war of aggression against Ukraine. The creation of this institution is intended to close an existing legal gap, since the International Criminal Court (ICC), despite issuing arrest warrants for war crimes and the deportation of children, lacks the legal basis under its statute to prosecute the leadership of the Russian Federation specifically for the core crime—the crime of aggression.