Ukraine is cutting back on fertilizer use where shortages have arisen
In 2026, the Ukrainian fertilizer market is expected to shrink significantly, as rising prices are forcing farms to cut costs and adjust their crop mix, and consumption could drop to nearly 4.9 million tons. Despite this, experts do not foresee a yield collapse, as weather conditions and basic resource availability are currently working in the agricultural sector’s favor.
The fertilizer market in Ukraine is entering a period of significant restructuring, where some segments remain stable while others are beginning to decline due to high costs and complex logistics, and this is already shaping the new economy of agricultural production. According to analysts, mineral fertilizer consumption in 2026 could drop to about 4.9 million tons, driven primarily by farmers’ cost optimization efforts and a shift toward less resource-intensive crops.
The greatest volatility is observed in the nitrogen fertilizer segment, where urea may lose market share and fall below the 1 million-ton mark, while ammonium nitrate appears more stable and remains at around 1.3 million tons, while UAN remains relatively predictable at around 780–785 thousand tons per year. At the same time, the first months of 2026 have already seen a difference in the urea supply balance—426 thousand tons versus 491 thousand tons a year earlier—indicating a gradual cooling of demand.
The situation is evolving differently in the sulfur-containing fertilizer segment, where ammonium sulfate is showing import growth, particularly due to expected shipments from China, and over the first four months of 2026, the balance reached 298,000 tons compared to 151,000 a year earlier, while the market for calcium ammonium nitrate remains small and unstable. Compound NPK fertilizers are also facing price pressure and remain at around 680,000 tons, reflecting farmers’ caution in spending even on basic soil nutrients.
Phosphate fertilizers remain affected by high costs and are estimated at around 460,000 tons per year, while potash fertilizers appear more resilient and may even show slight growth to 250,000 tons. Experts emphasize that despite reduced fertilizer use and a possible decrease in planted areas, the agricultural sector is currently maintaining yields thanks to weather conditions and accumulated resources; however, risks remain—ranging from expensive energy sources to logistical constraints and dependence on imports.
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