Spring frosts could drive up fruit prices in Ukraine

Ukrainians should expect seasonal fruits to become more expensive this summer due to weather-related risks. Because of the unusually cold spring weather, the country is forecasting significant losses in the apricot and peach harvests. This could lead to a shortage of these fruits on the market and rising prices during the season.

According to Denis Mironov, an analyst at the “Berry Farming of Ukraine” association, apricot crop losses could range from 40% to 60%, and peach losses from 30% to 50%.

“A significant drop in yield is expected in 2026 due to the cold weather in February and April, which in some areas could destroy more than half of the flower buds,” the expert noted.

The central and southern regions were hit hardest, as orchards there bloom earliest and are most vulnerable to frost.

Prices may rise by up to 80%

Experts warn that due to the shortage, prices for these fruits could rise by 20–80%.

“With a moderate shortage, prices will rise by 20–30%, and in the worst-case scenario—by 50–80%,” Mironov explained.

Ukraine will partially cover the shortfall with imports, particularly from Turkey, Greece, Spain, and Moldova, but this may not be enough.

Why frosts are critical

The expert emphasizes that apricots are the most vulnerable to cold weather.

“A drop in temperature to -1…-3°C during the flowering phase can kill the flower’s pistil,” he explained.

In addition, cool weather halts bee activity, leading to poor pollination even of the flowers that have survived.

“If the cold persists for several days in a row, protective measures become ineffective, and the crop is inevitably lost,” the expert added.