Ukraine's external debt amounts to about 100% of GDP, but the situation is under control
Ukraine’s external debt has approached 100% of GDP, but economists emphasize that this does not appear to be critical for a country at war. The bulk of the debt consists of concessional loans with low interest rates and long repayment terms. Experts emphasize that what matters most right now is not the size of the debt itself, but its structure and terms. Vasyl Furman, an economist, Doctor of Economics, and member of the National Bank of Ukraine’s Council, discussed this on Ukrainian Radio.
Ukraine is entering a period of war with a high level of external debt, which, according to various estimates, is approaching 100% of gross domestic product. At the same time, economists note that this figure should not be assessed in isolation, as a significant portion of the loans are concessional and are provided by international partners at low interest rates and with long repayment terms.
Vasyl Furman, Doctor of Economics and member of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine, explains that the current financing model allows the state to maintain macrofinancial stability even in wartime. According to him, the key factor is not only the size of the debt but also the terms of its servicing. “Our official external debt amounts to about 100% of GDP. That’s roughly $230–240 billion. But it’s important to note that most of these funds are concessional loans at 1–3% interest rates with long repayment terms. Therefore, the situation is under control,” Furman noted.
He also emphasized that Ukraine has already received about $175 billion in international aid from over 30 countries and financial institutions. Among the largest donors are the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and the United States, which provide the bulk of budget funding during the war.
Separately, the economist noted that part of the new funds in 2026 will be directed toward budgetary needs as well as defense procurement. At the same time, he emphasized that these resources cannot be used directly for military personnel salaries or the army’s internal expenses.
Furman also explained the rationale behind deferring part of the debt payments until 2030. According to him, this allows for reducing financial pressure in the coming years and directing resources toward defense and economic support. “We are deferring significant payments to the coming decades. This is not debt forgiveness, but it is critically important right now because it provides more breathing room for the budget and stability in the currency market,” he noted.
For comparison, the expert cited examples of other countries with high debt levels, including Italy, the U.S., and Japan, emphasizing that the debt level itself is not a decisive indicator of economic problems. In his view, under wartime conditions, the growth of public debt is an expected phenomenon, as external financing effectively ensures the functioning of the state.
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