British Intelligence estimates Russian casualties in 2025
In its report dated 14 January 2026, the UK Ministry of Defence stated that Russia’s armed forces suffered approximately 415,000 killed and wounded over the course of 2025. This figure marks the second-highest annual casualty toll since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, slightly below the record year of 2024, when Russian losses reached around 430,000 personnel.
The information was published by the UK Ministry of Defence on social media platform X.
According to British intelligence assessments, the total number of Russian military casualties since February 2022 has now exceeded 1.213 million, indicating the Kremlin’s willingness to pay an exceptionally high human cost for minimal territorial gains.
Drawing on data from Ukraine’s General Staff, UK analysts recorded a steady increase in Russia’s average daily lossestowards the end of 2025. While the daily average stood at around 1,030 casualties in November, it rose to 1,130 in December, marking the fourth consecutive month of increasing attrition.
Although the summer of 2025 saw the lowest casualty levels in the past two years, Russia’s renewed offensive activity across the entire front line during the winter period pushed losses back to critical levels.
Western analysts forecast that the upward trend in Russian killed and wounded will persist throughout January 2026, driven by the continued use of mass infantry assault tactics. The high operational tempo imposed by Moscow requires a constant influx of new manpower, a task that is becoming increasingly challenging for Russia’s mobilisation system.
British intelligence notes that while the Russian leadership continues to disregard the scale of losses as long as they do not threaten domestic regime stability, the cumulative effect of such casualties significantly constrains the long-term offensive potential of Russia’s occupation forces.
Meanwhile, as of 14 January, Ukraine’s General Staff continues to update data on Russian losses. On the battlefield, units of the 414th Separate Unmanned Systems Brigade “Madyar’s Birds” have successfully disrupted another Russian offensive on the Donetsk axis.
