Putin preparing a hidden 2026 draft to compensate for heavy losses
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is reportedly creating conditions for a possible phased, limited draft of reservists in 2026. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest this could be an attempt by Russia to compensate for significant losses in its war against Ukraine.
According to ISW, recent Russian government decisions indicate preparations for the draft of reservists. On 18 February, the State Duma of the Russian Federation passed a first-reading bill to strengthen preventive measures against “evasion of duty to defend the Motherland,” likely allowing Moscow to punish citizens who criticise the reserve draft.
Additionally, Russia banned Telegram, which may be an attempt to limit public criticism. ISW believes Putin intends to normalise a limited, phased draft to maintain army numbers without launching a large-scale mobilisation like in 2022, which led to up to 900,000 Russians leaving the country.
The limited draft is intended only to compensate for losses on the front and is not meant to significantly increase Russian troop strength. Analysts note that Kremlin measures for a phased, forced draft of reservists have been in preparation since at least October 2025, when the Russian government allowed reservists to be deployed abroad in expeditionary missions without officially declaring mobilisation or martial law.
In November 2025, Putin signed a decree allowing military commissariats to conduct conscription year-round. In December, he approved a decree for mandatory reservist call-ups for “military training” in 2026, likely to secretly mobilise strategic reserves.
ISW analysts indicate that the Kremlin is preparing to conscript a limited number of reservists “from a position of weakness” to offset the near exhaustion of Russia’s costly voluntary recruitment system in 2026.
This strategy reflects Putin’s ongoing effort to balance “guns and butter” (balancing military objectives with civilian needs) —preventing public discontent from large-scale mobilisation while maintaining the pace of Russian operations and preserving the civilian and defence workforce.
Preparations for a limited draft also suggest that Russia’s ability to recruit volunteers for combat in Ukraine is slowing. The high human, economic, and social costs of the war are forcing difficult choices.
ISW highlights that these steps show Putin, four years into the war as of February 2026, faces tough decisions regarding Russia’s military manpower. The Kremlin is likely also pressuring Ukraine to meet longstanding demands in peace negotiations to secure military objectives without incurring politically costly sacrifices.
For context: new conscription has been announced in Russian-occupied areas of Donetsk region, Russia has recorded a nine-year high in new military conscripts.
Belarus is being used as a staging ground for new Kremlin military plans.
ISW reports that the Kremlin has also issued stricter conditions for ending the war.
