Putin May Be Preparing a New Phase of Escalation — The Independent
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may view the coming months as an opportunity to change the course of the war against Ukraine. According to The Independent, the Kremlin is stepping up military operations beyond the Ukrainian front lines, which may indicate preparations for a broader escalation.
As the author noted, despite large-scale Russian airstrikes, Ukraine is currently holding its ground relatively well in the ground war. At the same time, Vladimir Putin is making statements about the allegedly inevitable capture of the Donetsk region following the fall of Kostiantynivka. According to the columnist, these claims do not reflect reality, a fact acknowledged even by some Russian military bloggers.
The author highlights three signs that, in his view, may indicate possible further aggressive actions by Russia toward Europe.
First, he believes that the Russian leader may be convinced that victory in Ukraine is near and sees a certain “window of opportunity” through September. Such optimism, Fox suggests, may be linked to divisions within NATO, statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, the crisis in the Middle East, and the depletion of Ukraine’s air defense system.
Second, Moscow continues its campaign of disinformation and destabilization in Europe. In particular, Russia is spreading accusations against the Baltic states, claiming that they are allegedly helping Ukraine carry out attacks on Russian territory. Over the past week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev have accused Latvia of participating in the war on Ukraine’s side.
In addition, the author recalled a recent incident involving a Russian Tu-95 Bear-F reconnaissance aircraft, which approached a NATO task force during exercises in the Norwegian Sea. The aircraft approached the British aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales and dropped anti-submarine hydroacoustic buoys, after which it was intercepted by British F-35 fighter jets.
According to Fox, this maneuver was demonstrative but may have had a reconnaissance purpose.
“Even if the buoys were operational for only a few minutes, they could have helped determine exactly which NATO escort submarines were in the area.”
The analyst also noted that Russian submarines, particularly unmanned vessels, have recently been more active in the North Sea and the Irish Sea, as well as in the English Channel, where they are monitoring underwater infrastructure.
“The sense that the war is gradually spilling over beyond Ukraine’s borders and spreading throughout the region is only growing,” Fox wrote.
According to the author, a third sign of a possible escalation is the deteriorating situation within Russia. He points to fuel shortages, disruptions to internet and mobile communications, as well as fuel and water shortages in occupied Crimea.
At the same time, he says, even if Putin’s attempt to secure victory fails, the war will not end.
“Russia is already functioning as a war economy, and Putin has become its wartime leader. Peace is not part of his vision for his own political survival.”
Fox suggests that if the war continues into the winter, Russia may resort to new risky measures, including declaring partial or full mobilization and imposing martial law.
“In that case, it won’t just be Kyiv and its Baltic neighbors that will have to seriously consider their own air defense. This will affect all European NATO allies, including the United Kingdom,” the article states.
According to the author, European countries will have to reassess their own systems for protecting their territories and maritime borders.
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure have already yielded tangible results. According to him, a country that for decades profited from oil and fuel exports is now forced to seek opportunities to import energy resources itself.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has supported the idea of creating a network of small oil refineries in the country to increase fuel supplies to the domestic market.
