Russia failed to capture Kostiantynivka by May — ISW
Russian forces failed to capture Kostiantynivka by May, but continue to make tactical advances in that direction.
On June 10, Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that units of the Russian Bakhmut Tactical Group had advanced from Stupochky through Novodmytrivka to the northeast of Kostiantynivka, as well as along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Bakhmut road to the Kostiantynivka railway station. The military analyst claims that Russian troops have captured the southern part of Novodmytrivka.
In addition, according to Mashovets, units of the Dzerzhinsk tactical group advanced from Illinivka into several districts of Kostiantynivka and near the railway station, and also carried out a tactical breakthrough in the western (central) part of the city. The leading assault units of the two Russian tactical groups are located about two kilometers apart. At the same time, Russian troops have failed to take control of the railway station in Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian forces have also driven Russian saboteurs out of the Dovha Balka area, located southwest of the city, says Mashovets.
As ISW analysts note, the Russians launched an offensive on Kostiantynivka in the summer of 2025 after capturing the towns of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and intensified their efforts in the winter of 2026. The Russians captured Toretsk in August 2025 after a 14-month campaign and have since advanced approximately nine kilometers toward Kostiantynivka. By August 2025, after more than two years of fighting, Russian forces had managed to take control of most of Chasiv Yar. However, in March 2026, Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks and resumed the battle for the city. Despite prolonged fighting, Russian troops have still not managed to completely dislodge Ukrainian defenders from Chasiv Yar.
Russian troops first entered Kostiantynivka in October 2025 and have maintained a presence in at least 12.69% of the city ever since, according to ISW analysts. Experts emphasize that the Russians were unable to capture Kostiantynivka by May 2026, despite the deployment of additional reinforcements and mechanized equipment. The occupiers significantly intensified their offensive operations against Kostiantynivka in March 2026, and Ukrainian officials stated that the Russian military command had set a deadline for capturing Kostiantynivka by May 2026. As of June 6, Russian forces had replenished 80% of the units that had attacked Kostiantynivka.
Experts believe that the Russians are likely to achieve tactical successes in Kostiantynivka in the summer of 2026, but are unlikely to achieve significant operational successes in capturing the fortified belt. Russian troops will likely continue to infiltrate throughout Kostiantynivka and consolidate positions in certain areas of the city, but will suffer heavy losses in the process, experts predict.
This is stated in a report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated June 10.
As a reminder, the Russian Armed Forces suffered 1,310 casualties over the past 24 hours, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The occupiers attacked Kostiantynivka with incendiary munitions and caused a rain of phosphorus.
Russia attacked Kharkiv and the surrounding region overnight; there are casualties.
