Russia is using nuclear exercises in Belarus to exert pressure ahead of a summer offensive
Russia is using high-profile military and nuclear exercises on Belarusian territory to create an additional threat to Ukraine. The occupiers aim to force Kyiv to redeploy some of its forces to the north, thereby weakening defenses on the main front ahead of Russia’s planned summer offensive.
This view was expressed by Andriy Veselovsky, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary and advisor to the director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, in a comment to Ukrinform.
According to Veselovsky, the President of the Russian Federation is preparing a so-called major summer offensive. As part of these preparations, offensive operations are taking place along the entire length of the front, during which the potentially weakest sections of our defense are being identified in order to direct additional reserves there with the aim of breaking through the front.
“The goal is to break through the front lines this summer in order to significantly change the situation on the battlefield by fall, hold elections in the Russian Federation, and pressure the Ukrainian government into handing over Donbas. Then Putin can take a break from the war. To achieve this, Ukraine’s attention and forces must be drawn away from the front as much as possible. Thus, the so-called Belarusian front is opening up,” the diplomat noted.
In this context, he recalled that, first, Russian troops are using Belarusian territory to fly their strike drones into Ukraine, where, as reported, there may be certain relay towers that facilitate the enemy’s control of its assets.
Second, Belarus is holding spring military exercises for reserve officers, which have taken place regularly in the past, but this year they are receiving “more propaganda attention.”
“Third, military nuclear exercises have been announced. All of this fits into the bigger picture that Ukrainians must immediately secure their northern front, and thus withdraw some troops from the main front. This is a strategy designed to make us fall for it,” he said.
Commenting on the likelihood of an attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, Veselovsky noted that he is not a military expert. At the same time, he pointed out that Belarus’s economic survival relies on two or three major industries, specifically automobile and tractor manufacturing, as well as the Mozyr Oil Refinery near the border with Ukraine.
“If there is an attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, a few dozen drones would be enough to destroy this plant. It would also be quite easy to disrupt production at the other two industrial sites I mentioned. Part of Belarus’s political leadership, led by Lukashenko, understands this. They certainly do not want such a turn of events,” the diplomat believes.
However, he notes that the country is home not only to many Russian agents but also to its own agents of influence, making the situation truly complex.
“On our part, we have already warned Belarus several times, even at the presidential level, not to play with fire, because we will respond ruthlessly… Of course, we have the General Staff and the Main Intelligence Directorate; they are not ignoring this (the threats from Belarus—ed.). But the main thing now is to hold back Russia’s general offensive on our front line. If we prevent critical breakthroughs, everything will be fine,” the diplomat believes.
Regarding whether we can count on partners to help contain the threat from the Belarusian direction, Veselovsky noted that “the only way partners can help right now is by significantly strengthening our air defense.”
“If we have enough equipment and weapons to protect our own industrial facilities and defense lines, our front will hold. Our European colleagues understand this, which doesn’t stop us from repeating it over and over again. Because people tend to forget—they start thinking about Xi Jinping, about Trump, while right under our noses there is a massive threat—the Russians are launching a decisive offensive. This must be understood,” the diplomat concluded.
The warin Ukraine will continue for a long time, says a German expert.
Zelenskyy reported heavy civilian casualties from Russian attacks over the past week
On May 16, Russian occupation forces carried out massive shelling of the Kherson region, resulting in one death and 15 civilians sustaining injuries of varying severity.
On the night of May 17, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down and neutralized 279 enemy drones out of 287 launched by Russian military units.
A 25-year-old woman was injured as a result of an enemy drone strike on a gas station in the Zaporizhzhia district.
