Russia is carrying out a large-scale covert mobilization due to a shortage of troops on the front lines, according to the ISW
Russian authorities are increasingly resorting to covert forms of forced mobilization amid heavy battlefield losses and low recruitment numbers.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts drew attention to a decree issued on March 20 by Pavel Malkov, governor of the Ryazan region. According to the decree, medium and large enterprises (with 150 to 500 employees) are required to select two to five employees to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. The decree will remain in effect until at least September 20, 2026.
“This is a continuation of Russia’s covert mobilization efforts aimed at avoiding open conscription while ensuring manpower for the front lines in Ukraine,” ISW experts note. They add that the Kremlin is shifting the responsibility for selecting recruits onto businesses.
According to ISW, in January 2026, the rate of recruitment into the Russian army fell below the level of combat losses for the first time since 2022. The Russian Ministry of Defense is facing difficulties in recruiting new troops, as the previous mechanism—large one-time payments upon signing a contract—proved less effective by the end of 2025.
“The Kremlin will likely continue covert and phased mobilization efforts in the regions, without resorting to large-scale forced mobilization, to compensate for losses in Ukraine,” ISW analysts conclude.
In addition, the Russians are conducting covert mobilization in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine.
