Sanctions have led to a critical decline in Russia's civil aviation sector and to aircraft cannibalization
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports that Russia’s civil aviation sector has reached a critical point of deterioration. Due to international sanctions and a lack of access to certified maintenance and original spare parts, Russian airlines are forced to resort to questionable methods to keep their aircraft in the air.
Currently, approximately 95% of all passenger traffic in Russia is carried by Western-manufactured aircraft, primarily from Airbus and Boeing, and long-haul flights depend entirely on them. A significant portion of this fleet has already exceeded its guaranteed service life.
Since legal maintenance is unavailable, repairs are carried out without proper certification, and parts are replaced with materials that do not meet safety requirements or are smuggled in from third countries.
One of the main ways to maintain airworthiness has become so-called “aircraft cannibalism.” To keep ten aircraft operational, Russian carriers are forced to completely dismantle one new and fully serviceable aircraft for scarce spare parts. Due to the risk of aircraft being impounded abroad, Russia can safely operate only about 400 foreign aircraft and fewer than 150 Soviet- or Russian-made aircraft.
The Main Intelligence Directorate notes that the Kremlin’s ambitious plans to replace its Western aircraft fleet with its own aircraft by 2030 remain unrealistic. Current Russian production capacity stands at only about 26 civilian aircraft per year, which is categorically insufficient to compensate for wear and tear and to implement approved programs.
Source: Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
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