The Kremlin is preparing to announce a mobilization — ISW
Russian authorities are establishing the legal and organizational framework for a possible new mobilization and the imposition of martial law. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the ISW, the Russian State Duma has passed a law allowing citizens with outstanding criminal convictions—including for drug smuggling and participation in organized criminal groups—to enter into contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
At the same time, the Russian National Guard has prepared amendments to civil defense regulations, adding provisions on actions during mobilization, martial law, and wartime.
Analysts believe these steps indicate the Kremlin’s systematic preparation for a possible new phase of mobilization, despite its unpopularity among the Russian public. In addition, in 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing reservists to be deployed to combat zones without an official declaration of mobilization.
At the same time, the ISW emphasizes that there is currently no evidence of an imminent mobilization announcement. According to analysts, the final decision will depend on Vladimir Putin’s personal assessment of the situation on the front lines and the domestic political climate.
Source: ISW.
Casualties among Russian occupation forces in the full-scale war against Ukraine have begun to outpace the rate of mobilization efforts in the Russian Federation.
Russia may mobilize more than 500,000 people this fall. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, reported on these plans by the aggressor country.
