Ukrainian defense forces are regaining the initiative on the front lines, according to the ISW
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually regaining the tactical initiative in various sectors of the front following a series of successful counteroffensives and amid mounting losses in the Russian army.
This is reported in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, the Ukrainian military has achieved its greatest gains on the front since the Kursk Offensive in August 2024.
In particular, the report notes that: since November 2025, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have liberated a significant part of Kupiansk; in the winter and spring of 2026—over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine; and since late April 2026—several settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
ISW analysts note that Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south created a ripple effect that impacted the Russian spring-summer offensive in the Donbas. Russia was forced to reallocate resources between defense and offensive operations.
It is also emphasized that medium-range strikes on Russian logistics and equipment are reducing the Russian Federation’s ability to sustain intensive offensive operations.
As noted by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, as of May, the number of Ukrainian offensive operations exceeds that of Russia, which may indicate a gradual shift in the tactical initiative.
ISW also notes that the decline in Russia’s combat power directly affects its ability to conduct large-scale offensives.
According to Ukrainian estimates, in May alone, units of the Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces could inflict up to 34,000 casualties on the Russian army, not counting the effects of artillery strikes and frontline combat.
Analysts suggest that Ukraine will continue to expand its medium-range strikes and counterattacks on vulnerable sections of the front, which could further complicate Russian offensive operations.
Overall, the ISW notes a gradual shift in operational dynamics in Ukraine’s favor and increasing pressure on Russian forces across the entire front line.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has released updated data on Russian army losses as of the morning of May 21, 2026. Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces eliminated another 910 Russian occupiers.
