Ukrainian strikes on Russian ships have paralyzed grain exports through the Sea of Azov
Ukrainian attacks in the waters of the Sea of Azov, during which more than 100 Russian vessels have been struck over the past nine days, have caused serious problems for operations at the ports of Azov and Taman. Russia has exported millions of metric tons of grain and vegetable oils through these facilities.
According to estimates by Mykola Lychov, managing partner of AgroTrend, the ports of Azov and Taman account for about 15% of Russian grain exports and 17–21% of vegetable oil exports. Analysts at Sovecon estimate their role to be even higher—up to 25% of Russia’s total exports of grain and sunflower oil.
Through the shallow-water ports beyond the Kerch Strait, Russia trades primarily with countries in the Middle East. Among the key buyers is Turkey, which purchases approximately one in every five metric tons of Russian grain.
Late last week, according to Reuters sources, Russian authorities informed shipping companies that they would no longer accept applications to transit the Kerch Strait, which connects the Azov and Black Seas.
On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Transport and the Rostov Region Ministry of Agriculture stated that they are seeking alternative routes for grain exporters, as the harvest season has already begun in the country.
Due to the late start of the harvest and logistical problems, Russian grain exports in July may be 20% lower than planned. According to forecasts by IKAR analysts, the volume of shipments will amount to about 2 million metric tons instead of the expected 2.5 million metric tons.
Russia may reroute some of the shipments that previously passed through the Sea of Azov to deep-water ports. These ports are capable of shipping 4–4.5 million metric tons of grain per month. According to Andriy Syzov, CEO of Sovecon, this may be sufficient for July; however, in August—when the peak of the export season begins—volumes rise to 5–6.5 million metric tons per month.
At the same time, experts warn that restructuring logistics in the middle of the season will be a difficult task. Mykola Lichev noted that in order to reroute these flows, rail stations, terminals, and ports must be ready to handle the additional volumes.
“If a bottleneck arises somewhere due to a lack of capacity for unloading or transshipment, it will slow down the entire supply process,” he said.
According to the expert, without government subsidies, it will be difficult for businesses to cover the costs of Russian Railways’ tariffs and additional fees. There is also the question of whether Russian Railways has a sufficient number of additional railcars to transport grain.
In addition to logistical problems, Russian farmers are facing a fuel shortage. Because of this, according to a source at one of the agricultural companies, producers may be forced to store their harvest in regional grain elevators.
This could lead to a surplus of grain on Russia’s domestic market and a further decline in purchase prices for farmers.
As a reminder, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have pushed back Russian troops near the villages of Maliivka, Sichneve, Novogeorgiivka, and Zaporizke in the Synelnykivskyi District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Over the past 24 hours, 244 combat engagements took place on the front lines. Ukrainian forces continue to repel the advance of Russian occupation forces, inflicting losses on the enemy in terms of personnel and equipment.
On the night of July 14, Russian forces launched a massive combined attack on Ukraine, using ballistic missiles, guided air-to-ground missiles, and attack drones. Air defense forces intercepted five ballistic missiles, two Kh-59/69 missiles, and 108 enemy drones.
Over the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s drone forces have struck or destroyed 1,559 Russian military targets, including 15 enemy vessels.
