Jerusalem Post author warns Israel against military overconfidence
In Israel, Jerusalem Post columnist Ariel Harkham warned against overestimating the country's military successes. In his view, Israel's strategic vulnerability could be the belief that technology, intelligence, and defensive barriers can guarantee security.
Lessons of October 7
The author writes that Israeli forces have demonstrated the ability to act against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. At the same time, in his assessment, these successes do not mean that Israel is an invincible regional power. Harkham notes that the country has limited strategic depth, while its adversaries have greater demographic and geographic resources.
According to the author, Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, could have had more severe consequences if Hezbollah and Iran had simultaneously entered the war in full force. He believes that subsequent Israeli operations should not weaken awareness of the risk of a coordinated attack by several adversaries.
Harkham also draws a parallel with the period after the 1967 Six-Day War. In his assessment, the victory at that time contributed to the formation of the belief that Arab states could not threaten Israel and that military superiority, intelligence, and defensive structures would be sufficient. These assumptions, he writes, collapsed during the 1973 war.
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Maneuver and the maritime component
The author believes that a defensive logic based on walls, fences, sensors, cameras, and protection systems has allowed adversaries to adapt. He mentions the use of proxy forces, tunnels, militias, missiles, drones, political pressure, and actions below the threshold of large-scale escalation.
As an alternative, Harkham proposes making maneuver a strategic principle and developing the maritime component. In his view, Israel's maritime geography can partially compensate for the lack of strategic depth on land. The author calls for the development of unmanned surface and underwater systems, autonomous reconnaissance, mine and counter-mine warfare capabilities, submarines, missile ships, and naval aviation.
He calls the arrival of the Dakar submarine important, but believes it should be part of a broader system of joint employment of manned and unmanned platforms. Harkham is convinced that Israel must retain the initiative and not turn its current military advantage into a doctrine that could prevent it from seeing new threats.
