Experts say Hezbollah has weakened in Lebanon — Asharq Al-Awsat
In Lebanon, military experts said that Hezbollah has significantly weakened following the expansion of hostilities that began with massive Israeli bombardments on September 23, 2024. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, the group suffered significant losses among its leadership, while its missile and drone capabilities and supply routes through Syria have diminished.
Losses of leadership and weapons
Security and defense expert Riad Kahwaji estimated that Hezbollah's decline in military, political and logistical capabilities exceeded nearly half. According to him, the group lost the overwhelming majority of its first- and second-tier commanders, while most of its current leaders in 2024 belonged to the third tier.
Kahwaji also said that in 2024 the group was managed locally under Iranian direction, while now its management and leadership have, in his assessment, become directly Iranian. Its missile and drone capabilities remain, but amount to less than half of their pre-war level, he added.
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Changing positions in southern Lebanon
According to Kahwaji's assessment, Hezbollah forces are stationed north of the Litani River, although they had previously been present directly near the border. He called Nabatieh the de facto line of contact between the group's areas of presence and Israeli forces.
Retired Brigadier General Khalil Helou believes that after the November 2024 ceasefire, the group did not lose its ability to continue military operations, although its capabilities declined. He linked the limited responses to Israel's actions to possible regrouping, rearmament and restoration of combat capability.
According to Helou, after the latest ceasefire, Hezbollah's response to Israeli attacks became almost nonexistent. He noted that over approximately two and a half months, the group carried out only a limited number of operations against Israel, while Israel conducted airstrikes, shelling and killings of group members every day.
