Chinese meteorologists expect El Niño to peak in November — ECNS

China's meteorological authority forecasts that the super El Niño, which could become the strongest on record, will peak around November. ECNS reports.

According to the authority, since September, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have risen continuously. The temperature anomaly index exceeded 3 degrees Celsius for the first time on record.

Forecast peak

In November, the indicator may reach 3.2–3.5 degrees Celsius. This is higher than the previous record of 2.8 degrees recorded during the 2014–2016 super El Niño.

The current pace of warming and the index values, according to Chinese meteorologists, substantially exceed the figures at corresponding stages of the three previous super El Niños — in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2014–2016.

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Expected impact on weather in China

The climate phenomenon is expected to affect weather conditions in China until the spring and summer of next year. In October and November, precipitation above historical averages is forecast in the country's central and eastern regions, increasing the risk of extreme downpours and flooding.

In winter, temperatures are forecast to be above average. At the same time, China expects more frequent cold waves and higher risks of rain and snowfall in the south of the country.

China's National Climate Center believes that the phenomenon will likely weaken rapidly and end in the spring or summer of next year. However, its broader climate consequences may persist, increasing the likelihood of hazardous weather events and intense heat waves in 2027.