Jared Diamond's book examines leaders' influence on the course of history — Dawn
Pakistani publication Dawn has published a review of a new book by American author Jared Diamond, Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) do Leaders Make a Difference. In it, the Pulitzer Prize winner examines the circumstances under which individual leaders can change the development of societies, states, business and sports.
Diamond contrasts three approaches to the role of the individual in history: the theory of the decisive influence of outstanding leaders, the view that politicians depend on social and economic circumstances, and an intermediate position. The author focuses on the conditions under which the abilities of a particular person can be decisive.
The Hamlet test
To assess the role of leaders, Diamond proposes the so-called Hamlet test: whether there was a person among their contemporaries with comparable qualities who could achieve the same result. As an example of a politician who passes this test, he cites Seretse Khama, the first president of independent Botswana. In the author's view, his policies helped the country avoid civil wars and prevented it from squandering diamond revenues on showcase projects.
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At the same time, Diamond emphasizes that even exceptional leaders depend on the historical moment. He mentions Genghis Khan, whose military and administrative abilities, according to the book, coincided with favorable climatic conditions in the steppes of Central Asia.
Politicians and businessmen
The author analyzes 22 modern leaders and concludes that those who truly had a significant impact on the development of their states rarely left office voluntarily. He names Nelson Mandela and Lee Kuan Yew as notable exceptions. Diamond also considers education an important component of effective leadership, referring in particular to Lee Kuan Yew and South African President Thabo Mbeki, who had training in economics.
Unlike politicians, the founders of major technology companies, including Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, do not pass the Hamlet test, in Diamond's view. He recognizes their success and willingness to take risks but considers them replaceable: in his assessment, the development of the internet had already created conditions for the emergence of an online store like Amazon.
