Columnist names risks to Milei’s reforms ahead of elections — Buenos Aires Times
In Argentina, the country risk indicator began to rise after a period of investor optimism about the country’s economic prospects. In an opinion column, the Buenos Aires Times notes that just a month ago, market participants expected this indicator to continue declining to the level of more reliable neighboring countries.
The author links the shift in sentiment to both international and domestic factors. Among the external risks, he names new wars in oil-producing regions, the growth of US public debt to more than US$40 trillion, as well as substantial investment in artificial intelligence. In his view, some investors fear that this sector could turn out to be a large-scale financial bubble.
Resources and resistance to change
The columnist believes that Argentina has the prerequisites for economic recovery thanks to the development of gas, oil and mineral deposits that for a long time remained insufficiently exploited. In his assessment, these resources could provide foreign currency revenues over several years to finance social programs during the transformation period.
At the same time, the author calls the social and political culture associated with Peronist corporatism the main obstacle to change. He argues that this model has deep roots and support not only among politicians and trade union leaders, but also among other influential social groups.
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Political prospects
In the author’s view, criticism of the political “caste” helped Javier Milei win the 2023 presidential election. However, he believes that to consolidate the new economic model, the country may need a government with a broader range of specialists than the president’s current team.
The columnist also suggests that a significant share of Argentines would not want a return to the order that existed when Alberto Fernández, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Sergio Massa were key political figures. At the same time, in his assessment, this does not mean unconditional support for Milei’s economic course or leadership style.
If the president’s behavior weakens his position in next year’s elections, supporters of market reforms may back Patricia Bullrich, Hernán Lacunza or Mauricio Macri, the author suggests. Among these three politicians, he calls Bullrich the current favorite, in particular because of her increasingly visible distancing from Milei and his sister.
