Lulu is considered the frontrunner in Brazil's presidential election
With six weeks to go before the presidential election, Brazil’s incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is considered the favorite in his race against right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro. Betting markets estimate Lula’s chances of re-election at more than 60 percent, and influential centrist politicians are expressing their support for him, according to the Buenos Aires Times.
At the same time, the lead remains narrow: in a poll released last week, Bolsonaro trailed the president by three percentage points. The official campaign period began on Sunday, and voting is scheduled for October.
Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign has been marred by a conflict with former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and reports of his ties to the former owner of Banco Master SA. That bank is at the center of an investigation into alleged large-scale bank fraud. According to the publication, the senator asked the bank’s former owner for money to fund a film about his father. Bolsonaro’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
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Flavio Bolsonaro was also unable to form a coalition with key centrist parties and was left without a female vice-presidential candidate, whom he had hoped to recruit to bolster support among women. According to a recent Quaest poll, women prefer Lula by a margin of nine points.
Lula is basing part of his campaign on the topic of relations with the U.S. and accuses Washington of attempting to interfere in Brazil’s elections. Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods. This sparked a trade dispute and, according to the report, boosted Lula’s approval rating. The Brazilian government also barred two U.S. State Department officials from visiting the country due to concerns that they might cast doubt on its electoral system.
The economy has become one of the main campaign issues. Investors are selling off Brazilian assets due to concerns about the budget deficit and public debt. The deficit is approaching 10% of GDP, while debt exceeds 80% of GDP. Finance Minister Dario Durigan acknowledged that the markets’ concerns are justified and stated the need to address the debt problem. At the same time, he did not endorse specific structural measures and said that Lula would decide on detailed plans after the election.
