Small parties in Israel remain near the electoral threshold
In Israel, several small political forces remain close to the electoral threshold ahead of the Knesset elections, while the Likud party faces competition within its own political bloc. Sociologist Menachem Lazar said this while analyzing the latest Maariv poll, the Jerusalem Post reports.
Struggle of small lists
According to Lazar, two or three parties are in the “risk zone.” Am Yisrael passes the electoral threshold with a minimal margin, while the Reservists and Economy Party fails to clear it by a similarly small margin. The Religious Zionism and Zehut list, in the sociologist’s assessment, currently enters parliament, but its position cannot be considered guaranteed.
Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White party and a former defense minister, is, as Lazar noted, the only representative of the small lists with more than 1% support. However, this is not enough to pass the electoral threshold. Other lists that have announced their participation in the elections do not show significant voter support.
Positions of blocs and Arab parties
The sociologist believes that the bloc of Zionist opposition parties has stabilized ahead of the elections. He drew attention to the even number of parties in the bloc and surplus-vote sharing agreements, which, according to him, should help avoid losing votes.
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At the same time, the Hadash, Ta’al and Balad alliance has not yet met expectations, while the Ra’am party led by Mansour Abbas maintains a stable result of five seats. Lazar stressed that turnout among Israel’s Arab citizens could significantly affect the representation of Arab parties. Arab citizens make up about 21% of the country’s population; if their turnout is comparable to that of the Jewish population, Arab parties could win up to 17 seats in the Knesset.
Internal competition within the ruling bloc
Lazar also said that Likud’s recent primaries and reserved places on the electoral list did not give the party a noticeable increase in support. In his assessment, competition between Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism and Am Yisrael does not work in Likud’s favor.
He separately noted internal disputes in the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party between Hasidic and Lithuanian groups. The Shas party, according to Lazar, has remained at the level of seven seats for a long time. The sociologist expects that after the holidays, the number of voters who have not yet decided will continue to decline.
