Mélanchon could become Le Pen's main rival in the French election
A new poll in France has revealed a picture that came as a surprise to some experts ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing party “Unbowed France,” is ahead of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe in several possible scenarios and could advance to the second round against Marine Le Pen. At the same time, Le Pen herself currently holds a significant lead over all potential rivals.
According to a new Harris-Interactive-Toluna poll commissioned by the M6 and RTL television networks, Mélenchon has a better chance of advancing to the second round of the presidential election than Philippe. The results were released on August 24. The poll was conducted among more than 1,700 French adults. In three out of five possible first-round scenarios, Mélenchon advances to the second round alongside Le Pen. In one scenario, he and Philippe are virtually tied. In only one scenario does Philippe outperform the left-wing candidate and advance to the next round.
Mélenchon’s support currently stands at about 16–17%. This is significantly higher than in April, when his support was estimated at approximately 12%. Philippe, on the other hand, has lost about three percentage points over the past month. In a scenario where he is the sole candidate from the centrist camp, he is supported by about 17% of voters.
Le Pen Is Still Far Ahead
Despite the battle for second place, Marine Le Pen remains the central figure in the race. Depending on the first-round scenario, she could receive 35–38% of the vote. This is significantly more than any of her potential rivals. According to the poll, Le Pen will win in the second round regardless of who runs against her.
If Mélenchon becomes her opponent, the vote split is projected to be 68% to 32% in Le Pen’s favor. If Philippe advances to the second round, the result could be slightly closer—55% to 45%. In other words, current polls suggest that the race is less about the presidency itself and more about the right to become Le Pen’s main challenger. There is still time before the election, so the polls could change significantly.
Who Is Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a 75-year-old French politician and leader of the “Unbowed France” party. He represents the radical left wing of French politics and is running for president once again. Mélenchon advocates for a much greater role for the state in the economy, social guarantees, and changes in France’s domestic policy. His political movement enjoys steady support among a segment of the French electorate, particularly among young people and the left-wing vote.
At the same time, his candidacy remains controversial for a significant portion of French society. That is why Mélenchon’s potential advancement to the second round would mean a very sharp confrontation between two political camps—the far right and the radical left.
Philippe Is Losing Ground
Until recently, Édouard Philippe was considered one of the main contenders for the second round. The former Prime Minister of France enjoys the support of the center-right electorate and has extensive political experience. Philippe served as prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron. After Macron’s second presidential term ended, many viewed Philippe as one of the strongest candidates from the political center.
However, the latest polls have shown his support waning. Now Philippe will have to compete not only with Le Pen but also with Mélenchon and other candidates just to make it to the second round.
Gluksmann Enters the Race
Raphaël Glucksmann could become another key player. The pro-European Member of the European Parliament confirmed to the French television channel TF1 that he is running for president. “Are we going to hand our country over to the far right? Faced with such a choice, I couldn’t stand idly by,” Glucksmann said.
He positions himself as a pro-European and pro-Ukrainian politician. Glucksmann also advocates for the protection of liberal democracy and criticizes some of Macron’s economic policies, particularly measures aimed at supporting business. So far, he trails Mélenchon in the polls. However, his entry into the presidential race could shift the balance of power among left-wing and centrist voters.
His family history is drawing attention
The French and British media are paying particular attention to Glucksmann’s family. His grandfather, Rubin Glucksmann, emigrated to Palestine in the 1920s and later became a communist. According to The Telegraph, he was recruited by the Comintern and worked as a Soviet spy in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. In various countries, he reportedly posed as a businessman.
Gluksmann himself today represents a completely different political stance. He advocates for a strong Europe, supports Ukraine, and speaks of the need to defend democratic institutions.
What This Means for the Election
The presidential election in France is scheduled for spring 2027. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron cannot run for a third consecutive term, so the French will elect a new head of state.
Currently, the main question is who will face Le Pen in the second round. The latest poll shows that the race for this spot is becoming increasingly interesting. Mélenchon has unexpectedly strengthened his position, while Philippe has lost some support. Glucksmann is just entering the campaign, so it is too early to assess his real chances.
At the same time, Le Pen’s approval rating remains significantly higher than that of her potential rivals. But there are still many months until the election, and French politics has proven time and again that the landscape can change dramatically during that time. Le Monde reports on this.
Ukraine has received positive decisions from the United Kingdom and France regarding the transfer of technology and licenses necessary for the production of SCALP/Storm Shadow long-range missiles. The next step will be for technical teams to agree on a specific timeline for the project’s implementation.
