Russia could attack NATO countries by the end of 2028 — FT
The Russian Federation has established a significant quantitative advantage in the production of unmanned aerial vehicles and is capable of using this capability to launch an attack against NATO countries by the end of 2028.
Latvian Armed Forces Commander General Kaspars Pudans warned that the Kremlin will attempt to exploit a temporary window of opportunity while the North Atlantic Alliance has not yet completed the large-scale rearmament of its armies.
Western military analysts note that the main danger lies not in the technological superiority of Russian weapons, but in Moscow’s ability to ensure a continuous and massive supply of equipment to the front lines.
Military leaders in European countries emphasize that the Russian military-industrial complex has learned to adapt quickly to the challenges of modern warfare.
Russia produces significantly more drones than Western countries and is capable of modifying them within a matter of months to meet immediate battlefield needs.
“Their advantage lies in the scalability of drones. They are capable of quickly replenishing stocks and maintaining large numbers on a massive scale,” the general said.
Most of the approved modernization and rearmament programs for NATO member states’ armed forces will not take full effect until around 2029.
According to Kaspars Pudans, it is precisely this time gap between the strengthening of the Russian military-industrial complex and the completion of reforms within the Alliance that is critically dangerous for European security.
“If I were in the Kremlin, I would say that if we are going to do anything, we must do it by the end of 2028,” he stated.
A similar analytical assessment is expressed by high-ranking officials from the defense ministries of other Alliance member states, who see additional motives for the Russian leadership’s haste.
Among the main reasons for a potential attack, they cite geopolitical uncertainty regarding the future of U.S. foreign policy after the end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s term.
In addition, the rapid growth of defense budgets and the deployment of new military factories in Europe are forcing Moscow to seek solutions before the West reaches the peak of its military might.
Russia’s direct experience in conducting intense combat operations, where thousands of drones are used daily, also remains a significant advantage.
At the same time, NATO forces currently have significantly less practical experience in countering such a threat.
For example, during recent large-scale British Army exercises in Estonia, commanders noted that existing drone stocks would run out in less than a week of actual combat.
This was reported by the Financial Times.
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