Intelligence: A new mobilization in Russia could trigger an economic crisis that lasts for years
A new wave of mobilization in Russia could not only cause serious social upheaval but also trigger a large-scale economic crisis with long-term consequences. According to intelligence estimates, the additional withdrawal of the working-age population from the economy could exacerbate labor shortages, reduce production output, and worsen conditions in key sectors, affecting the country’s economic stability for years to come.
This is reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Experts emphasize that the mass withdrawal of Russians from the economy amid a labor shortage will only worsen the situation, as modern warfare depends not so much on the number of troops as on the level of technical equipment, communication systems, and electronic warfare capabilities. Therefore, the military effectiveness of a large-scale mobilization is in doubt.
Political analysts warn that a new wave of mobilization could trigger a mass exodus of Russians abroad.
While some emigrants returned to Russia after the 2022 mobilization, this time highly qualified specialists may leave the country for good, which will deal an even greater blow to the economy.
Separately, the SWRU highlighted Russia’s financial difficulties. The Russian Federation’s budget deficit has already exceeded projected figures by a wide margin, and providing for hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops will require prohibitive costs.
Intelligence reportsnote a deterioration in the Russian economy despite external conflicts.
As a reminder, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked to Iranian exports until a full-fledged peace agreement is reached.
Ukraine is ready to deploy at least two mine-sweeping ships to the international operation to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines.
