Slavin Calls US-Iran Contacts Too Fragile — France 24

Barbara Slavin, an expert at the Stimson Center, said that recent indirect contacts between the United States and Iran mediated by Qatar were too limited and fragile for a serious diplomatic breakthrough. She described the confrontation between Washington and Tehran as a combination of military escalation, diplomatic uncertainty, and political calculations, France 24 reports.

Contacts Mediated by Qatar

In Slavin's view, there is no real diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. She called the interaction between the sides “kabuki diplomacy”: they are engaging partially while trying not to create the impression that they are ready for compromise.

The expert believes that both sides have domestic political incentives not to demonstrate concessions under pressure. For President Donald Trump, the political cost of appearing weak would be too high, while sustained pressure on oil markets may prompt Iran to wait rather than compromise.

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Regional and Energy Consequences

According to Slavin, the consequences of the US war against Iran are already extending beyond the bilateral confrontation. Saudi Arabia is becoming increasingly deeply involved in the conflict, while Yemen's Houthis continue to pose a threat to regional security and shipping. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, she said, have significant consequences for global energy markets.

In the coming months, diplomacy will remain difficult to access, Slavin believes. At the same time, she called the very fact of contacts between the sides important and stressed the need to turn them into a sustained process capable of ending the war, rather than merely containing new threats and escalation.