The U.S. is pushing Russia and Norway out of the European gas market
The United States could become the European Union’s main gas supplier as early as 2026. Following a sharp reduction in its reliance on Russian fuel, Europe is actively switching to American liquefied natural gas, but it has not yet managed to completely eliminate energy risks. This is reported by The Maritime Executive.
The European gas market continues to change rapidly following the move away from Russian pipeline gas, and the United States is increasingly becoming the EU’s primary energy partner as it rapidly expands its supply of liquefied natural gas.
Analysts at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis predict that as early as 2026, the U.S. could firmly establish itself as Europe’s largest gas supplier.
Just a few years ago, Russia was the main source of fuel for the European market, and after the start of the full-scale war, it was partially replaced by Norway. But now the situation is changing again—American LNG is increasingly pushing out competitors. The U.S. is actively investing in new LNG plants along the Gulf Coast and expanding its export capacity, while Norway is primarily relying on its old pipeline system.
Currently, American gas accounts for about two-thirds of all liquefied natural gas imports to Europe. Analysts estimate that by 2028, the U.S. share of the European LNG market could rise to as much as 80%.
At the same time, the European Union has not yet managed to completely break free from its dependence on Russian gas. Despite Brussels’s bold statements, imports of Russian liquefied natural gas have actually increased recently. Experts attribute this to the escalating situation around the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Due to risks to global energy supplies, EU countries were forced to increase purchases of Russian LNG to avoid shortages.
According to analysts, in the first quarter of 2026, imports of Russian liquefied natural gas to Europe rose by 16%. This is the highest figure since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
Ana Maria Yaller-Makarevich, a leading analyst at the institute, believes that Europe’s current energy security model remains unstable. “LNG has become the Achilles’ heel of Europe’s energy security strategy, leaving the continent dependent on high gas prices and new forms of supply disruptions,” the expert stated.
She also emphasized that the current crisis has shown just how heavily Europe’s energy sector depends on global conflicts and politics. “The 2026 energy crisis demonstrates that as long as European countries rely on gas, they must accept the geopolitical risks associated with it,” added Yaller-Makarevich.
Analysts are urging EU countries to reduce gas consumption now and transition more quickly to alternative energy sources. Among the key solutions cited are the development of renewable energy, the installation of heat pumps, and the modernization of the residential sector.
At the same time, experts are warning of a new risk: Europe may build too many LNG terminals, which simply won’t be fully utilized in the future. This could result in significant financial losses for EU economies.
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