The World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecast due to the conflict in the Middle East

The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.5%. One of the main reasons cited for the revision is the escalating situation in the Middle East and the associated risks to global markets.

In 2025, the global economy grew by 2.9%, exceeding the forecast released at the beginning of the year by 0.2 percentage points. 

At the same time, expectations for 2026 have been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points, to 2.5%.

This could be the lowest rate of global economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The World Bank warns that the situation could deteriorate even further. If disruptions in energy supplies intensify and cause serious turmoil in financial markets, global economic growth could fall to 1.3%.

Experts emphasize that the current geopolitical instability is putting additional pressure on international trade, investment, and financial flows.

According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy could accelerate its growth to 2.8% annually in 2027 and 2028.

However, even these figures will remain below the average growth rates observed globally during the 2010s.

Among the main factors negatively affecting the global economy, experts cite:

• slowing population growth;
• a decline in private investment;
• a decline in government investment;
• rising public debt;
• a slowdown in international trade.

World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill noted that the current global economy is less resilient to crises than it was during the 2008 financial crisis or even in 2018.

In his view, the combination of geopolitical conflicts, debt burdens, and structural economic problems makes the outlook for global development more uncertain.