Oil prices have risen due to the risk of a protracted war in the Middle East
On September 8, oil prices continued to rise amid growing concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to energy supplies.
Iran’s statement that it is prepared to launch a retaliatory strike against any new U.S. attacks on Iranian targets is putting additional pressure on the market.
As of 4:00 a.m. GMT, Brent crude futures rose 49 cents, or 0.5%, to $97.49 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $92.92 per barrel, up $1.44, or 1.6%, from the previous close.
Thus, the market is once again reacting to the risk that hostilities in the region could last much longer than expected.
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes notes that the latest escalation has significantly increased the risk of a protracted standoff between the U.S. and Iran.
“The recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has increased the likelihood of a protracted confrontation involving military action by the U.S. and Iran. This could mean that supplies to the Persian Gulf will remain limited until the end of 2026,” Hynes said.
According to his forecast, the market may not fully return to pre-war levels of oil supply until the end of the first or the beginning of the second quarter of 2027.
Given the risks to supply, Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts for Brent and WTI by $5.
For December 2026, the bank expects Brent to trade at $85 per barrel and WTI at $80.
For 2027, the forecast is $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI, respectively.
The bank attributed the revision to a new assumption that shipping disruptions in the Middle East could continue throughout 2027.
Marex analyst Ed Meir also believes that oil prices are likely to remain high through the end of 2026 as long as the war continues.
In his view, a quick return to a more stable market is unlikely due to the large number of unresolved issues.
Meir noted that the conflict could continue given the “many issues that still need to be resolved.”
Thus, further escalation in the Middle East could keep oil prices high and pose risks to global energy supplies.
This was reported by Reuters.
Oil prices rose amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which fueled fears of potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. As of 6:30 a.m. GMT on September 8, Brent futures rose 1.4% to $98.5 per barrel, reaching a six-week high. U.S. WTI crude futures also rose 1.4% to $94 per barrel.
In the UAE, key OPEC+ members decided during an online meeting to keep their oil production policy for October unchanged following six consecutive monthly increases.
