China studies conflict scenarios in the space between Earth and the Moon
Chinese aerospace specialists examined possible scenarios in which military confrontation could spread from Earth into the cislunar space between Earth and the Moon. This is a region where the movement of spacecraft is influenced by the gravity of both celestial bodies. The study was conducted by a team from Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xi’an, the South China Morning Post reports.
Maneuvers near the Moon
The scientists noted that spacecraft could use the complex gravitational environment near the Moon, where their trajectories are more difficult to predict. Under the described scenario, spacecraft could hide in this zone and later move toward targets located closer to Earth.
Spacecraft could also remain near strategic points where important or fuel-efficient routes converge. According to the authors, this could potentially make it possible to intercept rivals and force them to break through defenses or choose less efficient trajectories.
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Six types of possible confrontation
The article was published in July in the Chinese-language Journal of Command and Control. Its lead author, Dang Zhaohui, an associate professor at the School of Astronautics of Northwestern Polytechnical University, said that it is possible to affect an opponent without directly using force — by changing its route, delaying its mission, causing it to miss a launch window, or increasing its costs.
The researchers divided possible conflicts in cislunar space into six types, including pursuit and evasion, attack and defense, blockade and countering a blockade, as well as deception and recognition. In one scenario, decoys, false maneuvers, or disinformation could force an adversary to expend fuel, reveal its intentions, or lose an opportunity to act.
At the same time, the authors cautioned that real situations would be far more complex than the models. They often assume that spacecraft can be reliably tracked and that each side knows the other’s objectives, although this may not correspond to reality in a vast space that is difficult to observe.
