The Russian government has cut its economic growth forecast for this year by two-thirds
The Russian government has officially revised its GDP growth forecast downward, effectively acknowledging that the economy has entered a period of stagnation.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced an updated forecast, according to which economic growth in 2026 will amount to only 0.4%, which is three times lower than the previous figure of 1.3%.
Such a sharp shift in targets indicates the Kremlin’s inability to ensure a rapid recovery following previous crises.
Despite declarative statements about stability, the new figures indicate that the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse, and government officials are merely hoping to avoid an official recession.
“We expect to maintain positive GDP growth of +0.4% in 2026,” Novak stated, effectively acknowledging that there is no real growth at present.
The expert community received this news with outright surprise due to its pessimism against the backdrop of previous optimistic reports.
Economist Andriy Gnidchenko of the CMACP analytical center, who has studied forecasts from leading organizations, called this decision an unexpected surprise for the market.
The situation is complicated by the fact that, based on first-quarter results, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development has already recorded a 0.3% contraction in GDP.
This directly contradicts the demands of Vladimir Putin, who had previously publicly demanded that the government and the Central Bank immediately accelerate the pace of economic growth.
Currently, the Russian authorities are trying to balance the real shortage of resources with the need to report “successes” to the country’s leadership.
However, the downward revision of the forecast to mere fractions of a percent demonstrates that the aggressor’s internal reserves are being depleted faster than expected.
The Russian economy is already falling, and banks are preparing for a wave of defaults
The Russian economy ended the first quarter of 2026 with a decline for the first time in three years
