In Estonia, Isamaa and the Centre Party nearly tied in poll — ERR News

In Estonia, support for the Isamaa party in the latest Norstat poll stood at 22.8%, while support for the Centre Party was 22%. Over the past four weeks, Isamaa's rating fell by 2.9 percentage points, reaching its lowest level since November 2023. Support for the Centre Party remained stable, ERR News reports.

Distribution of party support

Estonia's Social Democratic Party (SDE) came third with 16%, its best result in two years. The Reform Party received 14%, while the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) received 13.1%.

Support for the Parempoolsed party stood at 6.8%, and for Eesti 200 at 1.4%. The Koos party was supported by 1% of respondents, the Greens by 0.7%, and ERK by 0.4%.

Possible number of seats

According to calculations by political scientist Martin Mölder, at the current level of support Isamaa could win 25 seats in the Riigikogu, while the Centre Party could win 24. Together, this would not be enough for a parliamentary majority, so these parties would need a third partner to form a coalition.

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SDE could win 17 seats, the Reform Party 15, EKRE 14, and Parempoolsed six. The combined support for the coalition parties stood at 15.4%, while opposition parties in the Riigikogu had 73.9%.

Results in Tallinn

In Tallinn, the Centre Party leads with 35.5%, followed by SDE with 23.2%. Isamaa, whose representative holds the post of mayor of the capital, received 9.9% support in the city; in May, its figure was almost 18%. Among women, Isamaa has 19.3% and ranks third after the Centre Party (23.5%) and SDE (21.9%).

The survey covered the period from August 24 to September 19. Four thousand Estonian citizens of voting age were surveyed.