The explosives found near the gas pipeline in Serbia may be a provocation by Russia
The incident involving explosives near the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in Serbia likely bears the hallmarks of a Russian provocation. According to experts, the amount of explosives found was insufficient to cause serious damage to the facility.
It is noted that this pipeline transports Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary, and the incident itself may be linked to the activities of Russian intelligence agencies.
This opinion was expressed to The Guardian by Major General Mykola Zentsov, founder of the company “Andromeda.”
Despite statements by Serbian and Hungarian authorities about a “threat to energy sovereignty,” weapons experts question the reality of any intent to carry out sabotage.
According to Zentsov, calculations conducted by the company showed that the 4 kg of explosives seized by the Serbian military security service in the city of Kanizsa in the north of the country could not have seriously damaged the gas pipeline.
Andromeda experts analyzed the specifications of the gas pipeline that transports Russian gas to Hungary via Turkey, Bulgaria, and Serbia, and calculated the amount of explosives that could theoretically cause serious damage.
Zentsev noted that a significantly larger amount would have been required for that. “Four kilograms (of explosives—ed.) is not enough to shut down the gas pipeline,” the expert remarked.
He emphasized that even with optimal placement, 4 kg of plastic explosives “would likely have caused only localized damage, which could be repaired within a few days without causing a prolonged disruption in supply.”
“This does not align with the objective of a classic act of sabotage aimed at putting infrastructure out of commission for weeks or months,” Zentsov emphasized, supporting “the conclusion that the incident was likely a provocation.”
He noted that, based on public evidence, the explosives were found several hundred meters from the gas pipeline, and no attempts to attach them directly to the facility were recorded. The expert also expressed the view that the incident was likely a false-flag operation carried out by Russian military intelligence (GRU).
“This is consistent with GRU standards,” Zentsov added, emphasizing the military nature of the incident.
According to the expert, the parties likely to benefit most from this are “the current Hungarian government, which gains additional political leverage ahead of the elections, and Russia, which seeks to use such incidents to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the civilized world.”
It should be noted that Serbia supports Ukraine’s energy stability.
Also, on April 3, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić will launch a “public dialogue” aimed at bringing the country out of its political crisis.
As a reminder, Serbia has extended its ban on the export of crude oil and petroleum products to protect the domestic market from shortages and sharp price hikes amid the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran.
Serbia has stepped up security at energy infrastructure facilities involved in the supply of Russian gas to Hungary, which is routed via Turkey.
