ISW: The situation on the front lines is the best it has been for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 10 months

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the situation on the front lines for the Ukrainian Defense Forces is the best it has been since June of last year. It also notes that spring weather conditions may hinder the movement of Russian troops.

This is evidenced by data from Ukrainian and British intelligence, citing the ISW report.

Citing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Institute for the Study of War emphasized that the enemy previously used poor visibility during fog to carry out attacks and infiltrations—a phenomenon that hinders Ukrainian drones and allows the occupiers to conduct ground operations.

"Ukraine has also achieved tactical and operational successes that may increasingly generate strategic consequences throughout late winter 2025 and early spring," the ISW report states.

It is also reported that Ukrainian forces began achieving significant tactical successes in southern Ukraine in late January 2026, which created cascading operational consequences on the front and forced the Russians to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks or redeploying personnel and forces to other sections of the front.

Previously, the ISW assessed that Ukrainian counterattacks could even derail Russian plans for an offensive campaign in the spring and summer of 2026.

"Russian officials have repeatedly attempted to spread the false narrative that Ukrainian front lines are on the verge of collapse, trying to convince the West to capitulate to Russian demands that Russia cannot achieve by military means. However, Ukraine’s recent successes indicate that Ukraine is not facing collapse,” the Institute for the Study of War added.

The report also notes that Ukraine’s efforts in technological innovation are increasingly having an impact against Russia. Ukrainian drone strikes alone killed or seriously wounded 33,988 Russian servicemen in March 2026, while Ukrainian artillery and other strikes eliminated another 1,363 occupiers.

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Russia also attacked Ukraine with 164 drones; air defense forces destroyed 150 UAVs.