OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast due to the war in Iran — Reuters
On Monday, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day. The organization cited the consequences of the war in Iran and the associated market risks as the reason.
Reuters reported this, citing the organization’s monthly report, which contains the first public assessment of the war’s impact on the market.
OPEC assesses the war’s impact on oil demand this year as less significant than some other analysts, such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The organization also did not revise its full-year forecast, as it expects consumption to recover in the final months of the year.
According to the report, average global oil demand in the second quarter is projected at 105.07 million barrels per day, down from last month’s forecast of 105.57 million barrels per day.
“Demand growth for the second quarter of 2026 has been revised downward for both OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development – ed.) and non-OECD countries, driven primarily by a modest temporary slowdown in oil demand growth amid current events in the Middle East,” OPEC noted.
The organization left its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, unlike the EIA, which halved its forecast in a report dated April 7.
OPEC+ agreed to resume increasing oil production starting in April, although the report highlights how sharply production has fallen since the conflict in Iran began in late February.
The summary, citing secondary sources, states that in March, average oil production by OPEC+ countries stood at 35.06 million barrels per day, which is 7.70 million barrels per day less than in February, with the largest reductions occurring in Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
On April 5, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day in May. This modest increase will largely remain on paper, as key members of the organization will be unable to boost production due to the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the report notes.
Global oil refining fell sharply in March — OPEC.
OPEC oil exports in Marchplummeted to a record low — Reuters.
As a reminder, oil remains above $100 following the resumption of Iraqi supplies.
Also, the price of oil could rise to $200 per barrel due to the war between the U.S. and Iran.
