Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit to influence the allies' decisions, according to the ISW
Russia deliberately launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on the eve of the NATO summit in an attempt to achieve a propaganda and political impact and influence the position of Western partners regarding continued support for Kyiv. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In their report, the experts highlighted a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense asserting that Russia would not remain indifferent to Western deliveries of drones, missiles, and ammunition to Ukraine and would respond by increasing the number and intensity of its strikes.
The ISW noted that the Kremlin has repeatedly employed similar tactics ahead of key international events.
In particular, massive strikes on Ukraine took place on the eve of the U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska in August 2025, as well as ahead of negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, and European partners in 2025–2026.
“The Kremlin is likely seeking to deter Ukraine’s Western partners from deciding to extend or strengthen their support for Ukraine at the NATO summit out of fear that Russia will intensify its campaign of strikes against Ukraine,” the report states.
Analysts also believe that the Russian government is trying to portray itself as a party open to negotiations, while at the same time placing the blame for the lack of peace on Ukraine.
According to the ISW, this information campaign intensified ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s meetings with Ukrainian and European leaders at the NATO summit on July 7–8.
As a reminder, on July 6, Donald Trump announced that he plans to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit.
At the same time, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that Moscow intends to continue contacts with the U.S. regarding a possible peaceful settlement, even if Washington revises its policy on the war.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War noted that the Trump administration has recently been increasingly publicizing the successful actions of the Ukrainian military, particularly strikes against Russian military targets and energy infrastructure, as well as the tactical successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in certain sectors of the front.
“The Trump administration is increasingly mentioning Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield, specifically Ukrainian medium- and long-range strikes against Russian military targets and energy infrastructure, as well as the tactical advances of Ukrainian troops on several sections of the front during the winter and spring of 2026. The Kremlin is likely attempting to shape the Trump administration’s views on the war ahead of a possible renewed interest by the U.S. and Europe in resuming negotiations and efforts aimed at bringing Putin to the negotiating table,” ISW analysts noted.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Today, July 7, the 36th NATO summit begins in Ankara and will last two days. Heads of state and government from all 32 Alliance countries, including U.S. President Donald Trump, will gather at the presidential complex.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that U.S. President Donald Trump was right to demand that allies increase defense spending, and he also supported Trump’s policy toward Iran.
As a reminder, NATO countries have reached the landmark level of 4% of GDP in military spending.
The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Finland, and Poland will establish a new Multilateral Defense Financing Mechanism (MDM).
Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that NATO countries, including the U.S., are currently supporting Ukraine’s large-scale campaign to strike Russian territory, with the goal of forcing Moscow to return to the negotiating table.
