Oreshnik's production could have faced serious difficulties
The analytical firm Dallas Analytics has reported possible accuracy issues with Russia’s “Oreshnik” medium-range missile. Researchers believe the cause may be difficulties in manufacturing components of the guidance system. However, there is currently no independent confirmation of the published data.
Russia’s “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile may have accuracy issues. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of a study by the Dallas Analytics research project. In their report, they assert that the difficulties may be related to the production of one of the key components of the guidance system—the GU-503 gyroscopic unit.
According to the researchers, this component was developed back in the Soviet era. For many years, its mass production had virtually ceased, and resuming production proved to be a difficult task. The report states that after the first use of the “Oreshnik” in November 2024, Russia launched several more such missiles at targets in Ukraine.
In particular, analysts mention a strike on the Lviv region in January 2026, as well as an incident in May 2026, when one of the missile’s warheads fell near a garage cooperative in Bila Tserkva. Dallas Analytics cites internal correspondence between the Michurinsk “Progress” Plant and the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant. The document is dated March 2025.
According to the authors of the investigation, the document states that the equipment used to calibrate and test GU-503 gyroscopes is obsolete. Furthermore, some of the necessary components are no longer in production. “The equipment for calibrating, testing, and verifying GU-503 gyroscopes is technologically obsolete,” states the document cited by the researchers.
The correspondence also allegedly notes that, due to the need to effectively rebuild the production base from scratch, it is impossible to fulfill the order within the established deadlines. The authors of the study suggest that these very problems could have affected the missiles’ accuracy and led to noticeable deviations from the specified coordinates.
However, they emphasize that it is currently impossible to independently verify the authenticity of the published documents. Similarly, there is no evidence of a direct link between production difficulties and the accuracy of the “Oreshnik.” “It is currently impossible to independently verify the authenticity of the correspondence and its connection to the missile’s accuracy,” the authors of the study note.
At the same time, the researchers caution against underestimating this weapon. In their view, even with technical problems, the “Oreshnik” remains a serious threat. Dallas Analytics believes that if production difficulties are resolved, Russia will be able to continue developing this missile system and improve its performance.
Thus, the published data remains subject to further verification for now. At the same time, they may indicate that Russia is facing technological limitations and problems related to its outdated Soviet-era infrastructure during the production of these new missiles. This is discussed in a report by the Dallas Analytics research project.
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