Who is the top favorite for the 2026 World Cup: Who do bookmakers and experts see as the future champion?
Yesterday, the first semifinalist was determined at the World Cup. The French national team confidently defeated Morocco 2–0 and became the first team to secure a spot among the tournament’s top four.
Today, the battle for spots in the semifinals will continue: other title contenders will play their matches, and bookmakers and soccer analysts have already updated their predictions regarding the World Cup’s top favorite.
UA.News explains who is currently considered the top contender to win the World Cup, what the bookmakers are predicting, and what conclusions artificial intelligence is drawing.
France Is the Bookmakers’ Top Favorite to Win the World Cup
After the conclusion of the round of 16, the French national team rose to first place in most bookmakers’ rankings. According to OddsPortal, an international aggregator of betting odds, Didier Deschamps’ team currently has the best chance of winning the World Cup title.
The team did not earn this status by accident. France is making a confident run through the tournament, demonstrating balanced play both on defense and on offense. Analysts highlight the players’ high individual skill, the depth of the roster, and their extensive experience competing at the highest level.
Experts also emphasize that France has the most balanced roster among all playoff participants. Even injuries have virtually no impact on the team’s performance, as the coaching staff has several equally capable players for every position.
Spain is hot on France’s heels
Most bookmakers name the Spanish national team as the second-favorite to win.
Luis de la Fuente’s team is having one of its best tournaments in recent years. The Spaniards not only consistently control possession but also demonstrate exceptionally disciplined defensive play. Heading into the quarterfinals, the team had virtually prevented opponents from creating dangerous chances near their own goal.
Analysts note that the current Spanish team no longer relies solely on ball possession, as it did ten years ago. The team has learned to quickly adjust its formation, effectively uses counterattacks, and has many young players capable of deciding the outcome of a match with a single play.
That is why many experts believe that a potential semifinal between France and Spain could effectively become the “hidden final” of the tournament.
Argentina remains among the top contenders
Despite a difficult path to the quarterfinals, the reigning world champions remain among the top three favorites.
Bookmakers aren’t writing Argentina off, primarily because of the team’s vast experience in decisive matches. Furthermore, the Argentines have repeatedly demonstrated that they’re capable of stepping up in the playoffs.
England — One of the Most Unpredictable Favorites
The English national team is traditionally considered a title contender ahead of virtually every major tournament.
This year is no exception. Bookmakers still rank England among the top four favorites, but experts are much more cautious in their assessment of the team’s prospects.
According to many soccer analysts, England has one of the strongest rosters in the tournament, but often struggles precisely in matches against top-tier teams. Mental toughness could be the key factor in the fight for the title.
Polymarket Forecast: Which Teams Have the Best Chances of Winning the World Cup
The Polymarket prediction platform offers another perspective on the title race, where odds fluctuate based on actual user trades. Essentially, market participants buy and sell contracts on specific outcomes, and their current price reflects the collective assessment of the likelihood of that event occurring.
American sports analyst Neil Payne has compiled this data into a separate tracker of teams’ odds at the World Cup.
After France advanced to the semifinals, Didier Deschamps’ team became the undisputed market favorite. As of July 10, Polymarket participants estimated the probability of a French victory at the World Cup at approximately 39%.
Argentina and Spain had roughly the same odds, each with about an 18% chance of winning the title. England’s odds are estimated at 16%. Norway’s odds were estimated at about 6%, while the other national teams remained clear underdogs.
Predictions for the World Cup winner from soccer experts
Looking at predictions from international sports media, opinions are generally in agreement.
Journalists at Sports Illustrated consider France the top contender to win the tournament, noting the team’s experience and the most balanced roster among all the quarterfinalists.
Analysts at talkSPORT also rank France first among the favorites, while Spain, Argentina, and England are named as the closest contenders. They specifically point out that these four teams have the best chances of reaching the final.
ESPN experts also single out France as the most balanced team in the tournament, though they emphasize that the knockout stage traditionally remains the most unpredictable part of the World Cup.
Artificial Intelligence Prediction for the World Cup Winner
In addition to bookmakers and experts, the Opta supercomputer regularly updates its own prediction for the World Cup winner. Unlike typical expert predictions, it simulates the tournament’s progression hundreds of thousands of times, taking into account the strength of opponents, team statistics, results of previous matches, national team rankings, player form, and other metrics.
After determining all the quarterfinalists, the algorithm ranked the French national team first. According to Opta’s latest calculations, the French have about a 37% chance of winning the World Cup.
The artificial intelligence names Spain as the second favorite, with approximately a 19% chance of winning. England (about 16%) and Argentina (about 15%) also made the top four contenders. The other teams remaining in the tournament have significantly lower odds of winning the title.
Interestingly, the supercomputer’s conclusions almost completely align with the assessments of leading bookmakers. Both the bookmakers and Opta’s mathematical model currently consider France the most likely future world champion.
