Grain exports from Ukraine could drop by more than half
Ukraine may sharply reduce its agricultural exports in the new marketing year. The reason is Russian attacks on Black Sea ports, through which the bulk of Ukrainian grain is shipped, as well as problems with alternative routes.
According to a preliminary estimate by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, the country may export approximately 29.6 million metric tons of agricultural products during the 2026–2027 marketing year. This is 54% less than previously forecast.
The previous export estimate was 64.4 million metric tons. The forecast has now been lowered to 29.6 million metric tons. Wheat exports, in particular, may see a significant decline. Ukraine is expected to sell approximately 8.3 million metric tons of wheat abroad. This is 53% less than in the previous forecast. This is particularly important for Ukraine, as the agricultural sector remains one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings. Last year, agriculture accounted for more than half of the country’s export revenues.
One of the main problems is Russian attacks on port infrastructure in the Odesa region. The ports of Greater Odesa typically handle about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports. Due to Russian strikes, port operations are being disrupted, which directly affects Ukrainian farmers’ ability to sell their harvest abroad.
The Danube route is also facing problems
Ukraine is trying to reroute shipments via other routes. One of them passes through the Danube ports, but another problem has arisen there—drought. Due to low water levels in the Danube, the ability to transport grain via this route is limited. Water levels in the river have dropped to record lows. At the same time, the new harvest is already arriving at storage facilities. If the export situation does not improve, Ukrainian grain storage facilities could fill up quickly.
According to estimates, approximately 59 million metric tons of grain storage capacity in Ukraine could be fully utilized as early as the beginning of November. By the end of fall, there may be a shortage of storage capacity, estimated at approximately 11 million metric tons. This puts additional pressure on the agricultural sector. Farmers must not only grow and harvest their crops but also find places to store them and figure out how to export them to foreign markets.
Ukraine is seeking new routes
Ukrainian authorities are already working to support farmers and increase grain storage capacity. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that subsidized loans for agricultural producers have already been approved. Ukraine also plans additional measures to increase storage capacity.
Kyiv has appealed to the European Commission to allocate 220 million euros, or about 253 million dollars. This money is planned to be used in the form of grants to subsidize interest on loans for small and medium-sized farms. Separately, Ukraine is working to expand overland routes. Kyiv and Bucharest have agreed to increase shipment volumes through the Romanian port of Constanța. Ukrzaliznytsia is also seeking additional transit routes for transporting Ukrainian agricultural products.
Grain is already being rerouted through Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary. However, these routes are not yet capable of fully replacing the capacity of Odesa’s ports. Therefore, the future of Ukrainian exports will largely depend on the operation of the Black Sea ports, the security of logistics, and the country’s ability to rapidly expand alternative routes.
For the Ukrainian agricultural sector, the problem has implications not only for exports but also for the domestic market. If grain cannot be exported or stored in time, this could put additional pressure on domestic prices and farmers’ incomes. This is reported by Bloomberg.
