The dollar exchange rate could rise to 45.5 hryvnias in August
In August, under the baseline scenario, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will remain within the range of 44.5–45.5 UAH, while the euro will trade at 51–52.5 UAH. There are currently no conditions for prolonged, sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
Taras Lesovyi, director of the Department of Financial Markets and Investment Activities at Globus Bank, shared this forecast in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
According to the banker, the National Bank of Ukraine will support the stability of the foreign exchange market by smoothing out exchange rate fluctuations through currency interventions. Additional factors include the country’s international reserves, which exceed $51 billion, as well as inflows of international financial aid.
At the same time, Lesovyi noted that exchange rate dynamics could be influenced by the course of the war, the intensity of Russian shelling, the volume of fuel and energy equipment imports, global oil prices, the euro-to-dollar exchange rate on international markets, and the situation on the domestic foreign exchange market.
The expert emphasized that the dollar exchange rate could move outside the projected range only in the event of significant external or internal changes; however, he currently sees no grounds for a sustained exchange rate spike.
Source: RBC-Ukraine.
As a reminder, Serhiy Mamedov, vice president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and chairman of the board of Globus Bank, forecasts that by the end of 2026, the dollar exchange rate could rise to 46–46.5 UAH, and the euro to 52.5–53.5 UAH.
In July, the Ukrainian food market will generally remain stable, though certain categories may experience both seasonal price drops and moderate price increases. This is due to changes in producers’ costs, logistics, and labor costs.
