Ukraine's plans to develop its own missiles for the Patriot system will face a major problem, according to *Die Welt*
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the decision to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture components for Patriot air defense systems. This move is already being called one of the most important outcomes of the NATO summit, but experts warn that mass production will not begin anytime soon.
Patriot missiles remain one of the few weapons capable of effectively intercepting Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles.
At the same time, Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of these munitions, and global production capacity is not yet sufficient to fully meet the demand.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that only about 60–65 Patriot interceptor missiles are manufactured worldwide each month, while the scale of Russian attacks far exceeds these capabilities.
According to the Ukrainian side, localizing production will shorten logistics chains, speed up the repair of air defense systems, and reduce dependence on supplies from allies.
Experts note that the production of Patriot missiles is one of the most complex technological processes in the modern defense industry.
Missile expert Markus Schiller predicts that it will take Ukraine at least one to two years before the first missiles or their components are ready.
“Setting up Patriot missile production is more complicated than many people think. I expect it will take Ukraine one to two years before the Patriot is ready for launch,” the analyst said.
According to him, Ukrainian companies will most likely manufacture individual components, such as engines, while the most complex electronic systems will continue to be supplied from the U.S.
As experts point out, this will be only the third time the U.S. has granted a license to manufacture the Patriot system. Previously, such production facilities were established only in Japan and Germany.
Specifically, construction of MBDA’s plant in Bavaria began in late 2024, but the first missiles are not scheduled to be produced there until 2027. In Japan, the launch of licensed production also took nearly five years.
Experts explain that the transfer of American technology, the certification of production processes, staff training, and the installation of specialized equipment all take a significant amount of time.
At this time, it has not been officially announced which specific Patriot variant Ukraine will be permitted to manufacture.
The options are the PAC-2 missiles, equipped with a fragmentation warhead, or the more modern PAC-3 missiles, which destroy aerial targets through direct hit and form the backbone of the U.S. missile defense system.
The Ukrainian side considers the PAC-3s to be the highest priority, as they have already proven their effectiveness in intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.
At the same time, Lockheed Martin has previously stated that it does not plan to launch full-scale production of PAC-3 missiles outside the United States.
Analysts emphasize that, despite the lengthy process of launching production, the agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. is of strategic importance.
It is expected to contribute to the development of Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex, become one of the largest joint defense cooperation projects between Kyiv and Washington since the start of the full-scale war, and strengthen NATO’s production capabilities for Patriot missiles, for which demand continues to grow in Europe and other regions of the world.
This is reported by the publication Die Welt.
Ukraine aims to launch production of missiles for Patriot systems under a U.S. license as soon as possible. However, according to Reuters, this process may begin not in Ukraine, but in one of the European countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, who arrived in Kyiv on a working visit. During the talks, the parties discussed increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, Ukraine’s need for air defense systems, and further military cooperation with the United States.
