In September, Ukraine's GDP fell by 2.4% due to problems in the steel industry and at ports — Forbes

In September 2026, Ukraine’s real GDP fell by 2.4% compared with the same period last year. Among the main causes were the shutdown of key metallurgical enterprises, blows to the industrial sector, logistical difficulties, and the blockade of seaports.

The effects of the economic crisis are most acutely felt in the industrial sector, which is under pressure due to problems with production and product supply.

The effects of the crisis are most noticeable in industry. The manufacturing sector contracted by 7% in September, primarily due to a sharp drop in metallurgical production following the shutdown of key steel producers as a result of Russian attacks.

In August, Russia intensified its strikes on metallurgical enterprises. Following a ballistic missile strike on August 11, Zaporizhstal halted operations, and on September 25, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih announced that it would suspend operations at its steel mill until the end of the war. In September, the situation reached the point where not a single metric ton of steel was produced in Ukraine in a single week—for the first time in a hundred years.

At the same time, the mining industry saw a sharp decline of 12.3%. One of the main reasons was a reduction in iron ore production, directly linked to the decline in steel production and export difficulties.

The transportation sector fell even more sharply—by 20%. Due to the de facto blockade of the ports in the Greater Odesa area, cargo must be rerouted to more expensive and limited alternative routes. At the same time, road transport cannot fully replace sea transport, and rail transport has its own logistical limitations.

Thus, the problems in the metallurgical sector have already spread to related sectors—mining, transportation, and trade. In the trade sector, gross value added fell by 5.5% in September, largely due to a decline in exports.

Based on the results for 2026, the IED expects real GDP to fall by approximately 0.5%. The institute warns that this figure may still be revised, as the situation in October appears to be worse.

Thus, the consequences of the shutdown in the metallurgical sector are no longer a problem limited to a single industry. The decline in steel production is dragging down mining, exports, transportation, and, ultimately, the overall economic performance.

In the worst-case scenario, if steel mills do not resume operations for an extended period, the economic losses could be significantly greater and could potentially reach 6.5–7% of GDP.

This assessment was released by the Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting, according to Forbes. 

The Ukrainian economy is growing again, with GDP rising by 0.9% in May.

In Russia, there is a trend toward staff reductions across various sectors, including IT, healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, retail, consulting, and other business services.

The Russian Ministry of Finance forecasts a sharp increase in regional budget deficits to $21 billion.