For the first time in Ukraine, state enrollment quotas at universities have been set based on labor market forecasts

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has adopted a resolution launching a large-scale reform of the education system. From now on, the number of state-funded spots in institutions of higher and pre-higher vocational education will be determined based on a long-term forecast of economic needs, calculated through 2036. The new funding model will be implemented starting with the state enrollment quota for the 2026–2027 academic years.

The forecast document was developed by the Ministry of Economy in collaboration with KPMG, with financial support from the Belgian government. As noted by Daria Marchak, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, this is the first economic modeling of its kind in the country’s history. It is designed to eliminate structural imbalances in the labor market and ensure the training of precisely those specialists that the country will urgently need during post-war reconstruction.

Under the baseline scenario, the total number of employed people in Ukraine is expected to increase from 12.9 million in 2025 to 14.6 million in 2036. The greatest growth in demand is expected for engineers, technical specialists, manufacturing professionals, medical professionals, scientists, and construction workers. In particular, the number of jobs in the construction sector is expected to grow from the current 520,000 to over 1.2 million.

Overall, between 2032 and 2036, the Ukrainian economy will need an additional 2.62 million new workers. The ministry emphasizes that it will not be possible to meet this labor shortage solely through graduates of educational institutions. The state will have to develop comprehensive solutions to bring Ukrainians back from abroad and actively engage the economically inactive population within the country in the workforce.